Week 4 features several important non-conference Group of Six games, but none is bigger than a matchup between two teams that nearly upset blue-blood programs earlier this month.
Boise State's clash with Western Michigan is the best game on the G6 slate and the most important in my Week 4 Group of Six picks.
My G6 college football picks also include two teams with College Football Playoff aspirations, and both are playing rivalry games in Week 4.
Week 4 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Colorado Statevs  UTSA |
+13.5 |
50% |
 South Floridavs  Bowling Green |
-17.5 |
50% |
 James Madisonvs  Old Dominion |
-6.5 |
47% |
 New Mexicovs  New Mexico State |
-11.5 |
51% |
 Boise Statevs  Western Michigan |
-7.5 |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
Colorado State vs UTSA: Colorado State +13.5
UTSA has had an eventful start to the season. The Road Runners upset Texas State with a last-second touchdown two weeks ago and then played Texas tough in Austin last week, making Arch Manning look pedestrian.
However, this Colorado State team won't be an easy out. Jim Mora Jr. has quickly turned the program into one of the Pac-12's feistiest teams, thanks to its run game and defense. The Rams rank eighth nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.444) and 16th in havoc rate (21.1%).
Even with Colorado State quarterback Hauss Hejny listed as a game-time decision, the Rams’ defense should keep them in this game. Colorado State ranks second in the country in third- and fourth-down success rate (23.5%), while UTSA’s offense sits 121st at 31.3%.
Roadrunners QB Owen McCown has also been inconsistent to start the season, ranking 113th in QBR (38.0). Against a stingy Rams defense, I like Colorado State to cover at +10.5 or better.
South Florida vs Bowling Green: South Florida -17.5
This matchup pits two former Ohio State stars against each other, as former Buckeyes wide receiver (and offensive coordinator) Brian Hartline leads South Florida against a Bowling Green program coached by former Heisman winner Eddie George.
Unfortunately for George, USF has taken much of a step back without Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown, thanks to its top-notch resources. In the Bulls' first season under Hartline, they're Top 10 nationally in points per opportunity (5.50) and have one of the best G6 passing attacks (32nd in EPA per pass).
That spells trouble for a Falcons defense that's 125th in EPA per pass and 130th in available yards percentage (70.5%). George's defense won't be able to stop QB Michael Van Buren Jr., who is fifth in the G6 in adjusted completion rate (81.6%).
Bowling Green is 0-3 ATS this season, including an outright loss as a favorite against FCS opponent Tarleton State, and has been outscored 131-27. USF is worth backing up to -20.5.
James Madison vs Old Dominion: James Madison -6.5
As it turns out, Billy Napier might know a thing or two about coaching in the Sun Belt. James Madison hasn't skipped a beat with Napier at the helm and looks like it could make a push for the College Football Playoff again this year.
The Dukes are 3-0 ATS and just beat San Diego State by 13 on the road as a 2.5-point underdog. Against one of the top defenses in the G6, JMU put up 417 yards and now ranks 23rd nationally in offensive success rate (50.5%).
Meanwhile, Old Dominion is in a complete rebuild after losing so much talent to the transfer portal. The Monarchs are 0-3 ATS this season, and their offense has been ugly, ranking 128th in available yards percentage (29.4%) and 135th in early-down EPA per play.
James Madison has a massive talent advantage in this year's Royal Rivalry, and I like the Dukes to cover up to -6.5.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State: New Mexico -11.5
Did someone say Rio Grande Rivalry? Well, it hasn't been much of a rivalry since Diego Pavia, Tim Beck, and Jerry Kill left Las Cruces for Nashville, and I'm expecting that to continue with a blowout win for New Mexico (I like the Lobos up to -16.5).
Since 2018, the only two wins New Mexico State has had against New Mexico were led by Pavia. This rivalry has historically been dominated by the Lobos, who are 75-35-5 and have won 42 of the last 56 games; that includes winning by 18 in Jason Eck's first season leading New Mexico last year.
New Mexico's defense is vicious, coming in fourth in the country in havoc rate (25.9%), and it should tear apart a New Mexico State offense ranked 119th by SP+.
Eck is the best coach in the Group of Six for my money (Wisconsin should hire him), and even without his starting QB, he has the Lobos 3-0 ATS. They gave Oklahoma a scare last week, too, losing to the Sooners by just one score in Norman.
Boise State vs Western Michigan: Boise State -7.5
Both of these programs nearly pulled off upsets in Week 1 against major teams. Boise State lost by one score to Oregon as a 25.5-point underdog, and Western Michigan was a phantom second and a Hail Mary away from beating Michigan outright as a 28.5-point underdog.
While both sides look like they'll win their respective conferences, Boise State isn't a good matchup for Western Michigan in this battle of the Broncos. WMU runs the ball (40 attempts per game), nearly double the amount it passes (22.3), and Boise State's run defense is one of the best in the G6.
Spencer Danielson's defense ranks Top 50 in EPA per rush and leads the country in third/fourth down success (20%). If Western Michigan can't run the ball, it won't score much, and its defense will have a tough time stopping Boise State.
The running back duo of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines (assuming he plays) have combined for 780 yards from scrimmage and five TDs this season. They should run all over a WMU defense that's 89th in early-down EPA per play and help Boise State cover up to -7.5.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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