Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship Picks and Predictions: The Tide Turns

The Georgia Bulldogs have been the nation's best team all season long, but with the Alabama Crimson Tide college football betting dogs for the first time in over half a decade, are we siding with Saban? Find out in our SEC Championship game picks.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Dec 4, 2021 • 11:05 ET • 5 min read
Daijun Edwards Georgia Bulldogs SEC Championship game
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Georgia has been the top team in college football all season, but now it has a chance to prove it in the biggest game of the year as it battles bitter rival Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Nick Saban and 'Bama have always been the spectre haunting Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs, so do they have value as an extremely rare underdog?  

Find out who we're siding with in the SEC Championship Game with our free college football betting picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Georgia on Saturday, December 4.

Georgia vs Alabama odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Georgia opened the SEC Championship as 4-point favorites but that number did not last long as early money on the Bulldogs quickly moved the line to -6. Since then, the spread has bounced back-and-forth between -6 and -6.5. Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 51.5 and then it has been mostly the Under seeing action, with the O/U dropping to 49.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Georgia vs Alabama predictions

Predictions made on 12/3/2021 at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Georgia vs Alabama game info

Location: Mercedez-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET

Georgia vs Alabama betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Georgia: Jamaree Salyer OL (Questionable).
Alabama: Brian Robinson RB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against SEC opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia vs. Alabama.

Georgia vs Alabama picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Simply put, this is the biggest game of Kirby Smart’s career. He’s had Alabama on the ropes so many times in the past and come up short every time. None was more painful than watching Tua Tagovailoa lead the Crimson Tide to an epic overtime comeback victory for the national championship.

Now, Smart gets a chance to bust the ghosts from his past with a win over Nick Saban and Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and maybe eliminate the Crimson Tide from the College Football Playoff in one fell swoop.

But, is Bama being a rare underdog too much to pass up? This is the first time Alabama has been an underdog since October 2015, which was a game in Athens against Georgia, of course. That said, Alabama is an underdog for a good reason. 

Georgia has looked like the best country all season. It has dominated everyone and has been a great bet along the way, going 8-4 ATS. The defense might be historically great, as the Bulldogs rank first in total yards and scoring. In their seven games against bowl-eligible teams, Georgia allowed just 8.0 points per game.

While the Bulldogs' defense gets most of the praise, the offense isn’t too shabby, either. Behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, Stenson Bennett runs a balanced offense. Bennett threw for 1,985 yards and 21 touchdowns while the running game rumbled for over 200 yards per game. 

Then there is Alabama. The Crimson Tide may be one of the best four teams in the country, but they just aren’t conveying that this season.

Bama is coming off a narrow escape in overtime against rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl and it was outworked in the trenches once again. That has been a common theme this season, in games against Florida, Texas A&M, LSU, and even Arkansas. 

Bryce Young is the betting favorite to win the Heisman, but that is in spite of an offensive line that has had its issues when it comes to pass protection. Plus, the run game looks stuck in the mud and Brian Robinson is dealing with a leg injury.

Being a one-dimensional offense will not bode well against this dominant Georgia defensive front. If the Bulldogs can win this game in the trenches they will force Young into some tough throws and that will be the difference in this game. 

Prediction: Georgia -6.5 (-110)

The early money on the total in the SEC Championship has been on the Under and it’s not hard to see why. 

Georgia allows a ridiculous 6.9 points per game. It has allowed seven points or fewer in eight games and hasn’t allowed more than two touchdowns in a game all season. Now, Alabama has the best offense Georgia has gone up against to date, but this isn’t going to be the time where the floodgates open.

On top of that, those offensive line issues will hinder the Tide in this matchup. The pressure Georgia creates should limit Young’s ability to push the ball downfield. That’s exactly what Auburn and LSU did in recent matchups when Bama was limited to 24 and 20 points respectively. 

Meanwhile, Georgia won’t abandon the run despite Alabama doing a good job of shutting down opposing rushing attacks. This one should sneak Under the number. 

Prediction: Under 49.5 (-110)

It is tempting to bet Alabama in this super rare situation where they are getting points, particularly when you consider Saban has always had Smart’s number and there is always that mystique of Saban going against his former assistants. Plus, Young is not only the best quarterback Georgia has faced all season but maybe the best in the country.

But sometimes, you can’t overthink things. Georgia has been the best and most dominant team in the country all season long and the areas where they excel can directly take advantage of Alabama’s weaknesses. 

Kirby Smart rides this historically great defense and gets the monkey off his back as Georgia wins the SEC Championship by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Georgia -6.5 (-110)

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Georgia vs. Alabama picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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