Florida State vs Wake Forest Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Seminoles Subdue Subpar Demon Deacons Offense

Jordan Travis and the Florida State offense gets the bulk of the headlines, but the Seminoles defense is nothing to sneeze at. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will have a devil of a time trying to mount some offense, per our college football betting picks.

Oct 27, 2023 • 12:16 ET • 4 min read
Florida State Seminoles Tatum Bethune NCAAF
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An 8-0 start to the season is on the line for the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday as they travel to Wake Forest for an important ACC matchup, and we’re here to break down the college football odds.

A comeback win over Duke last week kept Florida State’s perfect season intact, as it scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to claim the win. Now the Seminoles need to focus on not slipping up, as their final five games are all against unranked opponents with two straight on the road.

The Demon Deacons started 0-3 in conference play, but they finally put one in the win column last week against Pitt with a touchdown in the closing seconds. Now they must find a way to break through a Florida State defense that is allowing only 18.6 points per game this season.

Our free college football picks and predictions for Florida State vs Wake Forest on October 28 explain why that will be difficult to do.

Florida State vs Wake Forest best odds

Florida State vs Wake Forest picks and predictions

Wake Forest has four wins this season, but those victories haven’t come easily, and they haven’t come against good opponents. Its win over 2-5 Pitt came on a touchdown with just seven seconds remaining last week, and required the heroics of a third-string quarterback who had taken just six snaps prior to the game. 

But quarterback Santino Marucci was playing a poor Pitt team, and threw two picks while managing just 151 yards. Wake’s rushing attack carried the day, as the Demon Deacons gained 172 yards on the ground. The 21 points scored were also the most Wake put on the board in four weeks.

It’s the same recipe for success that Wake Forest had in a 36-20 win over Vanderbilt (288 rushing yards). But in their 3-point squeaker over Old Dominion, the Demon Deacons weren’t able to establish the run and it nearly cost them. Against Elon, they were able to throw the ball for over 300 yards as they won by 20.

Neither of those things are going to be likely against Florida State. The Noles have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 5.1 yards per play and ranked in the Top 20 in third-down defense. They’ve also got the second-lowest completion rate allowed, with opponents managing just a 50.22% success rate on their pass attempts.

Wake Forest struggles badly to put together drives. It’s ranked 87th in third-down success rate, 99th in red zone scoring rate, and 117th in points per play. 

The Demon Deacons don’t gain many yards when they run, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and their 197.5 passing yards per contest rank them 97th in college football. Making matters worse, they rank third-worst in Havoc allowed. 

Marucci was able to overcome his two picks last week and rely on his run game in a close contest. That won’t be the case this week, as the Seminoles’ high-powered offense is going to find success and pull ahead quickly.

Without the ability to sustain long drives and run the ball, it’s going to allow Florida State to unleash its pass rush against an offensive line allowing a sack every eight pass plays. Wake will do their best to stick to the running game, but it won’t find success against a Florida State defense that ranks 17th in Havoc. 

That’s why we’re betting Wake Forest won’t get to 16 points on Saturday. The Seminoles will be the third opponent to limit the Demon Deacons to 15 points or fewer in the last four weeks, as Wake Forest goes Under its team total for the fifth straight contest. 

Play this at FanDuel, which is offering the Wake Forest team total at a full point higher than most other books.  

My best bet: Wake Forest Team Total Under 15.5 (-113 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Florida State vs Wake Forest same-game parlay

Wake Forest Team Total Under 15.5

Jordan Travis 250+ Passing Yards

Taylor Morin Under 37.5 Receiving Yards

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Our same-game parlay at FanDuel sees us combining two of the aspects we discussed previously for a play that pays close to 4-1 odds — or better than +550, if you use their 50% college football SGP profit boost they have on offer!

First, we’re backing Jordan Travis to throw for at least 250 yards. We’re going with the alternate total just in case the Noles jump out to such a big lead that he’s pulled early. He’s reached this number in each of his last two games, and three of his last four. 

On the other side of the field, we’re taking Taylor Morin to have a quiet day. Morin’s failed to reach his total of 37.5 yards in four of his seven games this season, and he’s caught just one pass in two of his last three games. I anticipate another quiet day against the Noles defense. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Florida State vs Wake Forest spread and Over/Under analysis

The Noles are favored by 20.5 points and are expected to end a three-game losing streak to the Demon Deacons. The line opened at 18.5 points and was quickly bet up, and with good reason.

We already discussed the matchup, but Florida State is scoring at will with 30 or more points produced in 13 straight games. The Noles have scored at least 38 in each of their last three, and it’s unlikely they’ll struggle to reach that mark again as they cover the spread. 

As for the total, it opened as high as 53.5 before being bet down to 52 or 51.5 as the week progressed. This is likely due to the low total expected from Wake, with the Noles having to cover much of the number themselves. That could still be possible. 

Florida State’s last 13 games have seen the first-half Over hit 11 times, while eight of the last 13 first quarter totals have also gone Over. They’ve also gone Over for the game total in nine of those 13 games.

That said, Wake Forest’s recent games have seen the exact opposite. The Demon Deacons have had first quarter totals go Under in 12 of their last 13 games, with the game total going Under in nine of those contests. 

Florida State vs Wake Forest betting trend to know

The Over is 9-4 in Florida State's last 13 overall. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs Wake Forest.

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Florida State vs Wake Forest game info

Location: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC
Date: Saturday, October 28, 2023
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

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