Florida State vs Miami Odds, Picks and Predictions: Seminoles Control First Half Against Hurricanes

This is not the matchup the ACC dreamed of when it pulled the Miami Hurricanes out of the Big East. The ACC thought it was setting up decades of Sunshine State drama between Miami and the Florida State Seminoles, and instead, the Hurricanes are once again worrying they have the wrong coach. Those worries are probably premature around Mario Cristobal, but a loss Saturday night would only amplify them.

Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Florida State vs Miami on November 5.

Florida State vs Miami best odds

Florida State vs Miami picks and predictions

A valid argument can be made that a touchdown and a hook should counter-intuitively encourage a bettor to lean on the college football odds favorite. If the sportsbooks refuse to back off Florida State -7.5, it is almost assuredly with reason, and there are plenty of reasons to be found here.

Miami is 0-7 against the spread against FBS opponents this year. That’s hard to do. The most recent ATS loss came courtesy of triple overtime’s two-point conversion requirements, giving the Hurricanes a 14-12 win at Virginia, though favored by a field goal.

Miami quarterback Travis Van Dyke is not assured to be playing, and freshman Jake Garcia has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season — playing competitive snaps in each of the last two games.

The Seminoles, meanwhile, put together an impressive October. Really, they’ve put together an impressive season. They may be only 5-3, but losing to Wake Forest, at North Carolina State with Devin Leary still healthy, and to Clemson should hardly doom a season. Those may be the ACC’s three best teams.

Florida State has won the games it should have won, going 4-0 ATS in its four wins against FBS opponents and 3-1 ATS as a favorite against FBS foes.

So the books are convicted in their Seminoles’ belief, there is ample thought to doubting the Hurricanes, and Florida State has delivered when it should this season.

Yet, that hook lingers.

Maybe it’s cowardly, but avoiding the thought of a late Miami touchdown turning this into a one-score game will at least make Saturday night a bit more peaceful.

The Seminoles have led at halftime in four of their seven games against FBS opponents. Two of those shortcomings came against Clemson and Wake Forest. As said before, failing against the Deacons or Tigers should hardly doom a handicap. Outpacing the Wolfpack at the break, 17-3, should resonate louder.

This is a coward’s choice, but one that could prove prudent. It sticks with all possible indicators, just on a truncated timeline.

My best bet: Florida State first half -4 (-110 at DraftKings)

Florida State vs Miami spread analysis

Miami going 0-7 ATS against FBS opponents boggles belief, but even worse, the Hurricanes have done that to the tune of 12.93 points short of the spread per week. Remove the extreme mishap of losing to Middle Tennessee State as a 25.5-point favorite and that average still sits at 8.5 points short of the spread per game.

Theoretically, oddsmakers should figure out how bad Miami is at some point, but is it this week? The line movement suggests perhaps. This line opened with Florida State favored by 7.5 on Sunday afternoon, but that quickly jumped to -9.0. Then came the buyback. The line fell to this -7.5 by Monday afternoon, never quite reaching that even touchdown.

As long as it does not get to -7.0, then it is clear the books are not willing to grant that credit to the Hurricanes, a hardline that is difficult to fault given, again, Miami is 0-7 against the spread when facing FBS opponents this season.

Florida State vs Miami Over/Under analysis

Miami failed to score a touchdown last week. Sure, the final scoreboard reads 14-12, but the Hurricanes did not get to that conventional number in conventional ways, instead needing four field goals and a third-overtime two-point conversion to reach 14 points.

On 13 red-zone possessions in four games in October, Miami scored just six touchdowns. That failure rate alone may inspire some belief in the Under of this total of 53.5. The Hurricanes’ offense has fallen off of late, converting just 36.67% of third downs last month, and even with Van Dyke back in the lineup, it is hard to imagine Mario Cristobal will open up that stagnant offense.

Florida State vs Miami betting trend to know

Miami is 0-7 ATS against FBS opponents this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida State vs. Miami.

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