Conference USA takes center stage on Wednesday night when Florida International travels to Missouri State for a mid-week clash.
The Panthers have lost three of four and are hoping to find enough wins to make a bowl game, but the Bears still have a shot at contending for the conference title game and need a win to stay within reach of the three teams ahead of them.
Find out why Jacob Clark will play a key role in my Florida International vs. Missouri State predictions and college football picks for tonight's clash.
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FIU vs Missouri State prediction
FIU vs Missouri State best bet: Jacob Clark Over 250.5 passing yards (-114)
Jacob Clark came back for the Missouri State Bears against New Mexico State, and fans of the Bears had to be thrilled. After missing a large portion of the Western Kentucky game and all of the contest against MTSU, Clark threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns against the Aggies in an overtime victory.
The performance was the fourth time this season that Clark has thrown for 270+ yards. And if you remove the shortened WKU game — where he still managed 143 yards in just under a half of play — it’s the fourth outing in a row he’s hit that mark.
Against a struggling FIU Panthers pass defense, there’s no reason he shouldn’t clear his total of 250.5 passing yards. Only four teams in college football have given up more completions of 40+ yards than the Panthers, and Kennesaw State picked up 284 yards through the air on just 17 pass attempts last week.
Opponents are averaging nearly 270 passing yards a game, a number that's brought down by Penn State throwing for only 200 in a blowout win. The Panthers have had just one sack in each of their last five games, and that lack of pressure has them ranked 101st in opponent completion rate.
With Clark on the field, the Bears rank Top 50 in EPA/pass on the season. FIU’s defense ranks 105th in EPA/dropback, and simply won’t have an answer for
FIU vs Missouri State same-game parlay
FIU’s offense relies on running the ball and controlling the clock, and Kejon Owens is at the heart of that attack. He’s coming off consecutive games of at least 166 rushing yards, and has scored seven touchdowns on the season, with scores in three consecutive games.
Missouri State has allowed 16 touchdowns on 25 red-zone visits, and opponents have scored on the ground in all but one game this season.
That said, I like the Bears to cover the spread. The Panthers have a one-dimensional offense, and Missouri State has shown success at times against the run. The Bears also rank 30th in quality drive rate allowed, and have held three of their last four opponents to under 3.5 yards per carry.
FIU’s inability to throw the ball will be problematic against a Top-40 defense on third downs, and the lack of big-play threat through the air will doom the Panthers if they fall behind by multiple scores.
FIU vs Missouri State SGP
- Jacob Clark Over 250.5 passing yards
- Kejon Owens anytime touchdown
- Missouri State -3.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Slow and steady early on
In Missouri State’s six games against FBS opponents, only once — the opening game against USC — have there been more than 10 points scored in the opening quarter. The Bears do a good job on third down, but often struggle early to convert drives into points as they rank 129th in points per quality drive.
FIU ranks just 116th in that metric, and often looks to establish the run early. That, combined with the cold temps on Wednesday night, should keep things fairly slow-scoring yet again in the opening stanza. The first-quarter Under will cash for the fifth time in FIU’s last six games, and sixth time in Missouri State’s last seven.
FIU vs Missouri State SGP
- Jacob Clark Over 250.5 passing yards
- Kejon Owens anytime touchdown
- Missouri State -3.5
- First quarter Under 10.5
FIU vs Missouri State odds
- Spread: FIU +3.5 | Missouri State -3.5
- Moneyline: FIU +145 | Missouri State -170
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
FIU vs Missouri State trend to know
Missouri State has caashed the first-quarter Under in five of its last six games. Find more college football betting trends for FIU vs Missouri State.
How to watch FIU vs Missouri State
| Location | Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, October 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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