The last Heisman Trophy winner to also win the national championship was Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith in 2020.
Can Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza halt that streak on Monday night?
Against the Miami Hurricanes’ aggressive defensive front, the Fernando Mendoza odds are on him struggling to stay upright but still finding chunk gains downfield.
Check out our full Miami vs. Indiana predictions for January 19 to get even more college football picks for the CFP National Championship Game!
Fernando Mendoza predictions for the National Championship Game
Best Bet: Fernando Mendoza Under 15.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
If this number seems low, it is. Fernando Mendoza has cleared it in 13 of 16 games this season. But two of those worries came in the last five games. Still, this is a low mark.
Then why doubt Mendoza to clear it? Not only does the Miami Hurricanes have the best defensive front Indiana has seen this season, but the Indiana Hoosiers also have the worst offensive line that the Hurricanes have faced in the College Football Playoff.
To be more precise, the combination of that offensive line and Mendoza’s reluctance to scramble instead of staying in the pocket too long is the worst combination the Hurricanes have faced in the playoffs.
Marcel Reed averaged 42 rushing yards on eight carries per game against FBS competition this season. He needed 15 carries to get 27 yards against Miami.
Julin Sayin was sacked five times for a loss of 42 yards, never managing to rush the ball otherwise against Miami.
Dual-threat Trinidad Chambliss gained seven yards on five carries in the Playoff semifinal.
This is what Miami’s defensive line does. It creates pressure and contains mobile quarterbacks. Mendoza is not thoroughly mobile. So the Hurricanes are simply going to create pressure on him.
Fernando Mendoza same-game parlay for the National Championship Game
Fernando Mendoza Under 15.5 rushing yards
Fernando Mendoza Over 223.5 passing yards
Fernando Mendoza anytime touchdown
Part of the reason to doubt Mendoza’s rushing yardage is that he will be insistent on hanging in the pocket. Indiana quarterbacks scramble at the 76th-highest rate in the country. Mendoza looks downfield more than anything else.
Looking downfield should lead to passing yardage.
Furthermore, while some projections will argue against taking Mendoza’s Over Passing Yards, they are putting too much stock into his season numbers, when he often sat out fourth quarters of blowouts. Mendoza will not have that opportunity to rest in the national championship game.
Adding a touchdown prop from Mendoza may be bold — he has not run for a score in the last three games and has just six on the season — but keeping the ball in the quarterback’s hands near the goal line could help Indiana mitigate some of Miami’s defensive front, another blocker helping the cause.
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