Colorado State vs Texas NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Longhorns Looking Ahead to Michigan?

After making their first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff a season ago, we’ll get our first look at the No. 4-ranked Texas Longhorns as they battle the Colorado State Rams on Saturday.

The Longhorns are pegged as hefty 32.5-point favorites and our Colorado State vs. Texas predictions aren't so sure they'll be able to cover that number. Find out why in our college football picks below.

My best bet
Colorado State +32.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis
It’s Year 3 of the Jay Norvell era for the Colorado State Rams and his Air Raid offense, and some results would be nice by now. This team is just 8-16 over the last two campaigns, but there's still optimism coming out of the Mountain West program. 

They return starting quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who showed great strides in his first year as the starting pivot. He threw for 3,460 yards and 22 touchdowns, though he did get picked off 16 times. He’ll have the benefit of throwing to stud wide receiver Tory Horton, who might just be the best pass catcher on the field for either squad.

He's coming off a 96-catch, 1,136-yard, 8-touchdown campaign, and it's a plus that Fowler-Nicolosi will be playing behind the same O-line as a year ago. We’ll see how he holds up against a talented and legit Texas Longhorns defense, which ranked 13th in points allowed last year (17.5 points per game). 

Texas will want to improve on last year’s pass defense, which surrendered 240.8 yards per game — ranking Bottom 5 in the Big 12. That’s not as much of a concern when you have an offense that can mask those problems, and Texas fits that bill, averaging 35.8 points per game a season ago. That offense should be just as potent again in 2024. 

Quinn Ewers is back under center after a successful 2023 that saw him throw for 3,479 yards and 22 touchdowns against just six interceptions. His 78.3 QBR was 17th in the nation. He might be busier than usual, as the Longhorns backfield — which averaged 188.4 yards on the ground a year ago, a Top-25 figure — is dinged up.

CJ Baxter is done for the year with a knee injury, while Christian Clark (Achilles) is out, too. That leaves the majority of the workload to Jaydon Blue, who rushed for 389 yards and three scores last season.

Talent-wise, Texas should be able to handle this opener. With Michigan on the horizon in Week 2, expect the Longhorns to stay mostly vanilla and take care of business, with the hope they leave with a win and without injury. That should leave the door open for CSU to score just enough points to stay within this massive number.

Colorado State vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)

Colorado State +32.5

Jaydon Blue anytime touchdown

Tory Horton anytime touchdown

+380 at BetMGM

Down the depth chart between Jonathon Brooks and Baxter, Blue still carved out a role in the Texas backfield, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He found paydirt for Texas in the CFP semifinal against Washington, rushing nine times for 66 yards and that score. The Rams were 95th in run defense a year ago, though they did allow 18 rushing scores.

Horton ended his campaign with back-to-back TD receptions against Nevada and Hawaii, breaking a season-long six-game TD drought. He was dynamite early on, hitting the endzone six times in his first four games. Fowler-Nicolosi would be smart to target his star receiver and try to stretch this Texas secondary if he can.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Colorado State vs Texas odds

Colorado State vs Texas live odds

Colorado State vs Texas opening odds

• Spread: Colorado State +31.5 | Texas -31.5
• Moneyline: Colorado State +4,000 | Texas -50,000
• Over/Under: Over 60.5 | Under 60.5

Colorado State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

• Texas went 3-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2023. Colorado State was 4-3 ATS as an underdog last season.
  
  
• The Rams had a 2-2 O/U record last season as an away underdog. The Longhorns have cashed the Under in seven of its last eight home non-conference games.

Colorado State vs Texas betting trend to know

Colorado State has covered the first-half spread in four of its last six games. Find more college football betting trends for Colorado State vs Texas.

Colorado State vs Texas game info

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