In the last seven weeks, I have spent many a day, rather certain I will avoid the city of Las Vegas as much as possible the rest of my life. I hope I am wrong. I have had many a great time in the original sports gamblers’ paradise.
My first trip was when I first yelled at a blackjack table, “Time is a social construct.” A stranger had openly chosen to miss his 6 a.m. flight as we played through the night. Honestly, fewer bad decisions were made that night than you currently assume.
Time is never more of a social construct than at a blackjack table in Las Vegas, as the servers start asking if you would like a mimosa, but the flexibility of time is next most apparent in my college football picks.
College football Week 6 preview and betting news
- Consider Notre Dame’s Timing
- Speaking of Time And Its Limits
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- On Sacks
- Bonus Bet No. 2
Consider Notre Dame’s Timing
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish opened the season 0-2. They do not have a ranked opponent remaining on their schedule. Yet FanDuel considers Notre Dame a short underdog to reach the College Football Playoff, currently listed at +130.
A 10-game winning streak while pouring in points throughout that run would certainly be an easy narrative arguing for the Irish to reach the Playoff. Notre Dame’s timing hinges entirely on the unexpectedly convenient scheduling decisions made long ago by now-retired director of athletics Jack Swarbrick.
If the Irish had lost to Miami, reeled off half a dozen wins, and then lost at home to Texas A&M, that narrative would be flawed, and their Playoff chances would stumble with it.
Time is a social construct. Schedules are determined by conference requirements. That is part of why USC keeps hinting it wants out of its annual matchup with Notre Dame.
And right now, the Irish can scoff at the Trojans for that want. USC losing last week to Illinois cost Notre Dame a ranked opponent moving forward. Who is more hurt by that matchup right now, Lincoln Riley’s flailing Los Angeles tenure or Marcus Freeman’s attempt to return to the Playoff? An argument can be made that the Irish are worse off, as they would be better served by playing Michigan this season.
Note: That hypothetical matchup would be about a pick’em on a neutral field, perhaps the Wolverines are short favorites. Bet on the Irish.
Anyway, back to the social construct, Notre Dame would have been best served by playing USC before it lost multiple games to the likes of Illinois and presumably Michigan next weekend. If the Big Ten had simply scheduled USC’s games against Northwestern and Iowa earlier in the season, the Irish would have better Playoff chances.
Is that logical? Nope. But in college football, neither is time.
Speaking of Time And Its Limits
The time is coming when Trent Dilfer jokes will join the Mike Gundy jokes on the clearance rack, next to a never-ending supply of Gene Chizik jokes. But until then, …
You cannot say Trent Dilfer has let go of the rope at UAB.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 2, 2025
Because he never had the rope at UAB. https://t.co/nbZYo7a7zF pic.twitter.com/ogRFxmQlF4
Then again, college football jokes can always come back around. As Nietzsche said — yes, Nietzsche said this first, not “True Detective” — Time is a circle. Bobby Petrino is Arkansas’s head coach again. Truth is crooked.
Okay, one of those sentences didn’t come from Nietzsche. The Petrino thought definitely fits a Jeremy Bearimy timeline, though. Ah, so the Razorbacks are in The Bad Place. Got it.
Bonus Bet No. 1
Speaking of Notre Dame’s timeline, let’s establish the premise of a “Full Cignetti.”
Indiana knew it needed to run up scores to look impressive enough to reach the College Football Playoff last year. The Hoosiers had no good wins available to them once they lost to Ohio State, and Michigan presented itself as a wild disappointment in 2024, a disappointment somewhat even more clear in 2025.
So Indiana ran up scores and reached the College Football Playoff. Curt Cignetti’s approach was vindicated.
Notre Dame needs to run up scores to reach the College Football Playoff now. The Irish have no good wins available to them after they lost to Miami and Texas A&M, and USC has presented itself as yet again a disappointment.
That is why sportsbooks offer Jeremiyah Love to score 2+ touchdowns at odds-on likelihoods, -105 at DraftKings.
That is why Notre Dame’s No. 2 running back, Jadarian Price, is as heavy as -210 to reach the end zone. Don’t bet that. Bet Price to score twice instead.
The, well — I do not apologize for what I am about to say — the price difference is too steep. Asking for two touchdowns from Jadarian Price should not be as lucrative as +265 when one touchdown is as miserable as -210. That price is too good to turn down.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Jadarian Price 2+ Touchdowns (+265 at DraftKings)🏈
On Sacks
There is NFL data that a drive featuring a sack is effectively doomed. The reasons are obvious.
It is a loss of a down.
And it almost always turns the next play into a negative game-state situation.
That all comes on top of whatever statistical chance of failure there was before the sack.
In many ways, a sack holds much the value of a turnover. It wounds a drive. It helps field position. Sure, some drives can survive a sack, and even if not, the ensuing field position flip is not as dramatic as a turnover. But that is why the first sentence of this paragraph said “much the value” and not “the same value.”
Sacks are an underappreciated game-changer. So is giving them up.
So, well, hello, Auburn and Ball State and Illinois and Utah State.
How are you today South Carolina and Rutgers, and Troy?
No wonder you have disappointed this season, Washington, Wisconsin, and Liberty.
This tweet really annoyed me, so I coded up a simple model to predict sacks using down, distance, yard line, and game state to see who really protects the QB best this year.
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 3, 2025
Leaders in Sack Rate Over Expected:
1) Army -0.061
2) Clemson -0.037
3) ULM -0.037
4) Cincinnati -0.037… https://t.co/6XNlsKA5t6 pic.twitter.com/TgtXUVE9mP
Bonus Bet No. 2
Let’s not overthink this, then. Kentucky is not among the worst offenders in sacks allowed, but the Wildcats are distinctly noticeable in that chart, and that is rarely a good thing.
And now Kentucky’s broken offense has to go to Georgia just after the Bulldogs lost to Alabama.
The Wildcats rank No. 110 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and No. 129 in dropback success rate, per cfb-graphs.com. Georgia may make that look worse.
Bet on the Bulldogs to sack Kentucky plenty. Mark Stoops can soon complain about his job status again, another moment of time repeating upon itself.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Georgia -20 (-110 at Caesars)🏈
In college football, as at the blackjack table in Vegas or the bar in Iowa, the most reliable measurement of time is the level of the bottle behind the bar.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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