College football used to populate Thanksgiving Day with some of its best games. Instead, this week has seen only three games thus far, highlighted by Navy’s 28-17 win against Memphis on Thursday night.
Among those three games, three teams’ seasons already ended, and one of them is more thankful than the others. Let’s start off 40 college football Thanksgivings with the worst team college football odds have seen in many, many years.
1) UMass’s season already ending is a blessing. The 0-12 Minutemen were a paltry 3-9 against the spread, only once putting a scare into an opponent. This may have been the worst FBS team of your lifetime.
College football Week 14 preview and betting news
- Concise Conference Races
- Rivalry Week Bonus Bets
- Proven NIL Approaches
- Odds & Ends & Firings
- Heisman Frontrunners
Concise Conference Races
2) Unlike last year, the first season of the truly bloated conferences, the Power Four conference races are all rather straightforward this year, beginning with the Big 12, where if Texas Tech wins as a 23.5-point favorite at West Virginia and BYU wins as a 17.5-point favorite against Central Florida, the Cougars will get a title-game rematch against the Red Raiders.
3) And the ACC, where if Virginia, an 8.5-point favorite, beats Virginia Tech for the first time since 2019 and only the second time since 2003, then the Cavaliers will be in the ACC title game almost assuredly facing SMU, needing to win as a 13.5-point favorite at Cal. The Mustangs making two ACC title games in their first two seasons in the ACC should not go unappreciated.
4) The Big Ten is obviously charging toward Indiana (-28.5 at Purdue) facing Ohio State (-9.5 or -10.5 at Michigan) with the winner the presumed No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
5) While the SEC will delight in Alabama beating Auburn, the Tide is favored by 5.5 points, to better Alabama’s chances at reaching the Playoff by taking a shot at the SEC title against Texas A&M, presuming the Aggies win at Texas as 2.5-point favorites.
6) Do not underestimate Middle Eastern takeout on Thanksgiving.
7) And always enjoy the Packers beating the Lions on Thanksgiving.
Rivalry Week Bonus Bets
8) Why have such faith in Alabama winning at Auburn, despite knowing Iron Bowls get spooky in Jordan-Hare Stadium? Because the Tigers feature a defense content to give up passing successes, ranking No. 90 in defensive dropback success rate, and they now face one of the most accurate passers in the country. Ty Simpson should run it up on Auburn on his own.
🏈Bonus Bet: Alabama -5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)🏈
🏈📊WEEK 14 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 24, 2025
OHIO STATE @ MICHIGAN
TEXAS A&M @ TEXAS
GEORGIA @ GEORGIA TECH
ALABAMA @ AUBURN pic.twitter.com/CAVXXfOTaT
9) Those same thoughts can apply to Ohio State’s edge against Michigan, another defense giving up passing successes all season while trying to prevent the explosive plays. The Buckeyes have the No. 1 passing offense in the country; a defense designed to give up any version of passing success will struggle against that offense.
🏈Bonus Bet: Ohio State -17.5 (+210 at FanDuel)🏈
10) While a repeat national champion would not be the most enjoyable result to the season for most of the country, enjoy Ohio State’s passing attack, the best in the country, though chased by a whisker by Indiana, per CFB-graphs.com.
11) Give the same deference to Oregon’s rushing attack. Only a few teams each season rush with such explosiveness that running the ball is a valid offensive approach, and the Ducks lead the way this year, arguably joined by Notre Dame, Utah, and BYU, perhaps Indiana. The Cougars have the fifth-best EPA per rush ground attack in the country, gaining 0.180 expected points per rush attempt. For context, the No. 15 passing attack outpaces that EPA per play. Hence, running the ball is a valid offensive approach for only very few teams each season.
12) Stopping the run is a domain best owned by Texas Tech, costing opponents 0.224 expected points per rush attempt.
13) Stopping the pass is also a domain best owned by the Red Raiders, though Ohio State is hardly trailing.
14) If Texas Tech has the best pass defense in the country and the two best passing offenses are the two teams likely to meet in the Big Ten title game for the right to be the No. 1 seed, then let’s all be grateful that the Red Raiders currently sitting at the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff rankings, perhaps setting up a best vs. best matchup in the Playoff semifinal, if we can only be so lucky.
15) College football fans should also hope the Red Raiders stay at No. 5 in order to then host a first-round Playoff game. Imagine the tortillas. On-campus postseason games are a delight.
Proven NIL Approaches
16) Texas Tech really proved the concept of turning a good roster into a great one via a healthy NIL budget, didn’t it?
17) While Virginia proved the ability to turn a hot coaching seat into a conference title contender via a healthy NIL budget, something Wisconsin, Florida State and Maryland are all hoping to mirror in 2026.
18) College football conspiracy theorists should be applauding JJ McCarthy’s lackluster performance with the Vikings this season, lending more credibility to the likelihood that the Wolverines won the 2023 title only because of their elaborate sign-stealing scheme.
19) I am most grateful for cheesecake.
Odds & Ends & Firings
20) Kent State has won four games this season, also a 5.5-point underdog at Northern Illinois on Friday. The Golden Flashes won one game in their last two seasons combined. Amid some quiet rumors the school may shut down the football program, interim-turned-full-time head coach Mark Carney warrants great praise.
21) The Western Kentucky social media team affirms the NFL could never be this cool.
Storming the hen house 🐓 pic.twitter.com/joDnDZ1KLc
— WKU Football (@WKUFootball) October 2, 2025
22) Better late than never, UAB, on firing Trent Dilfer.
23) Better late than never, Oklahoma State, on firing Mike Gundy.
Me to Mike Gundy the rest of the season: https://t.co/OTCWYuXzMl pic.twitter.com/6VGfKYy41s
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 7, 2025
24) James Madison will not make the College Football Playoff — the Dukes would need North Texas to lose as a 20.5-point favorite against Temple on Friday and Tulane to lose as a 30.5-point favorite against Charlotte on Saturday — but the Dukes deserve plenty of credit for what should be a 12-1 season culminating in a Sun Belt title.
25) Similarly, a nod to Wake Forest for standing at 8-3 in Jake Dickert’s first year.
26) And Northwestern is going to a bowl game in a season that started with serious doubts about David Braun’s job status.
27) A smart gambler looks forward to LSU’s trip to a bowl. That roster will be devastated by defections, just as it was four years ago. The Tigers were 7.5-point underdogs in the Texas Bowl, only to lose 42-20 to Kansas State. The Wildcats led 42-7 with four minutes remaining. Yes, that kind of fate may await LSU again.
28) I am quite grateful for donuts.
29) And Prince-themed Timberwolves jersey. Word to 11.
two down, two to go. 👀 pic.twitter.com/WEbKfkVZkj
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) November 16, 2025
30) Some years, it is nothing but a trope to praise Hawai’i for bringing late-night excitement, but the Warriors delighted night owls this season by throwing the ball 16.4% more often than the average team would in a given game state, the highest relative rate in the country. The gap between Hawaii at No. 1 and Middle Tennessee at No. 2 is as wide as the gap between No. 2 and No. 15, SMU.
31) No one faced the run more often than North Texas did this season, notable given one should trust Texas Tech to run through its possible in-state, first-round Playoff opponent.
32) Somali tea is one of this country’s most underappreciated imports.
Heisman Frontrunners
33) Look forward to the Big Ten title game, a chance for Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to lock up the Heisman, currently the -125 favorite at FanDuel.
34) Though Julian Sayin at +400 should get a boost by gashing Michigan’s defense on Saturday and then could simply one-up Mendoza in a head-to-head matchup to start December.
35) Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love’s Heisman candidacy should peak this weekend, currently listed at +450. The star junior will get his yards and scores at Stanford, but will anyone watch the 10:30 ET kickoff?
36) Plenty will watch Diego Pavia (+650) try to keep Vanderbilt’s slim Playoff hopes alive at Tennessee. Regardless, Pavia’s historic collegiate career should include a trip to New York City as a Heisman finalist.
37) Finally, Lane Kiffin is going to have to make up his mind. Thank whatever higher power you believe in.
The only way for Lane Kiffin to not leave a genuine title chance if he indeed takes the LSU job is to lose the Egg Bowl on Friday.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 26, 2025
Selfish, foolish behavior compromising Mississippi's first genuine title chance in six decades.
Why do we play these games?
For those chances. https://t.co/TCbZoBEe1f pic.twitter.com/OKxfCYAxDY
38) The Ivy League finally joining the FCS playoffs yielded both Yale and Harvard in the postseason in this first such season.
39) Appreciate your friends with Kansas ties.
From the sidelines of the newly renovated Booth Memorial Stadium at Kansas.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 23, 2025
Jayhawks by two touchdowns. https://t.co/3ASNT6dHYI pic.twitter.com/3d9fMxoTOl
40) Lastly, obviously, pour yourself a bourbon or two to end the week. Don’t be selfish. Keep the glass within reach of your date. Thank me later.
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