When you woke up this Monday morning, how much was your life genuinely impacted by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish opting out of a bowl game after being left out of the College Football Playoff?
Unless you are on the Notre Dame roster, the Irish coaching staff, or one of their family members, your life was not impacted at all. No existential crisis is assured from Notre Dame’s decision to bypass what was likely going to be the Pop-Tarts Bowl against BYU.
So, congrats, you loudmouths on social media, you reactionary columnists and those opining about a sport they actively choose to remain ignorant about, you scored easy applause by criticizing Notre Dame for halting its season one exhibition game early, a decision reportedly made by the players’ leadership group more than anyone else at the University.
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) December 7, 2025
You exposed yourselves as anti-labor. You clearly never made an emotional decision as an 18- to 23-year-old. And you have never been so foolish as to feel the psychological toll of being lied to, and that is what the Irish feel: that they were lied to for more than a month.
Lies damage one’s mind. They remove resolve. They douse your inner fire.
That is where this moment is different than Florida State’s decision to send its backups to the Orange Bowl in 2023 to lose 63-3 against Georgia. The unbeaten Seminoles were robbed, but they were not deceived. They were offended and angered, but they were not made fools of. Injury cost Florida State, not the incompetence and insincerity of others.
Weak sauce.
— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) December 7, 2025
You didn't see Florida State do this when it got left out in 2023 and then everyone opted out and their JV group got crushed by Georgia and we make fun of it today and OK I sort of get it now. Nevermind. https://t.co/r7Lv2D1wTg
For more than a month, the Irish were effectively told, if they kept winning, they would be in the College Football Playoff. That decision was then changed this weekend despite neither Notre Dame nor Miami playing. If the Playoff selection committee’s entire month of November was not a lie, then it was, at best, meaningless.
“Any rankings or show prior to this last one is an absolute joke and a waste of time,” Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua said to Yahoo. “Why put these young student-athletes through these false emotions just to pull the rug out from underneath them, having not played a game in two weeks, and then a group of people in a room shatter their dreams without explanation?”
It is perfectly understandable for the Irish to choose not to play in a bowl game. Their star running back duo would have undoubtedly opted out of any bowl game; defensive linemen pressing to be active for the Playoff would not have been asked to hurry their way to Orlando; at least another dozen or so players would have entered the transfer portal before the game.
The transfer portal may not open until January now, but that does not mean players will not announce their entrance to it and leave their teams before January to protect themselves from injury before finding their next team.
I’m sorry, but any industry professional who wants to create some sort of moral panic over declining a bowl bid needs to use their government name. We’re not going to do a news cycle about WHAT WILL THE CHILDREN THINK?!?!? https://t.co/QYTP1t8hth
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownEP) December 7, 2025
That was the crux of the leadership group’s decision: They just won 10 straight games by double digits; that was a special accomplishment by this team, and that accomplishment could be lessened by playing an exhibition game with only some of that team available and all of it already feeling betrayed by the sport.
“They are young kids. They devote so much time and effort to this,” Bevacqua said. “In a moment, it’s all taken away from them. We’ll process this and move forward.”
College football moves forward without Notre Dame... for now. If this same scenario unfolds in 2026, the Irish are guaranteed a Playoff bid. That has been written into a Memorandum of Understanding since the spring. If Notre Dame is in the Top 12, it automatically makes the Playoff.
A newsy wrinkle from Bevacqua: As part of an MOU signed last spring, Notre Dame is assured of a CFP berth if it is ranked in the top 12 starting next year.
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) December 7, 2025
If this year’s situation unfolds next year, the final at-large team (Miami) would have gotten bumped for No. 11 Notre Dame.
Missing eight or nine practices this December — yes, you are allowed up to 15 in bowl preparations, but when the bowl game is 19 days away, you are allowed to practice only so many days in a week, and you have to accommodate for final exams, Christmas and travel, 15 practices simply are not going to happen — will not impact the Irish hopes in 2026. If anything, the early start on winter strength and conditioning could reap rewards.
So, no, the Irish are not signalling any give-up or any change to their independence with this bowl decision. They are simply being human and honest: Bouncing back from a lie takes time. Anyone criticizing that is simply bragging about their own selfish lack of empathy.
Listen, I wish Notre Dame would play, too. But I’m not going to turn participation in a made-for-TV money grab into a referendum on the character of the players and those leading the program.
— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoATH) December 8, 2025
Notre Dame football owes us nothing.
Biggest winners
Obviously, the Irish were the biggest losers of the College Football Playoff bracket reveal. Notre Dame went from the third-shortest national championship odds to out of the field, but who was the biggest winner of the bracket, aside from the surprise inclusion of both the Alabama Crimson Tide and Miami Hurricanes?
Removing the Irish from the field shortened the odds among the rest of the top of the field. All of Ohio State (+220 at FanDuel from +240 before the bracket reveal), Indiana (+290 from +310), and Georgia (+550 and +700) have better title chances because of Notre Dame’s ill fate. Those moves do not add up to the loss of the Irish chances, but Oregon’s boost (+800 from +950) and the natural jumps to Alabama’s and Miami’s hopes account for the rest of the math.
Focus on Georgia’s better odds. They did not jump because Notre Dame is not in the field; Ohio State’s tick reflected that, the Buckeyes delighted at the thought of facing Miami rather than the Irish. The Bulldogs’ odds shortened because they got the No. 3 seed, not the No. 2.
No. 7 Texas A&M is flawed, but it is more of a Playoff threat than No. 6 Mississippi. If you are looking for an addition to your betting portfolio, consider a Georgia ticket. The Bulldogs have the easiest path to the Playoff semifinal.
Conference championship reactions to ready you for the College Football Playoff ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 7, 2025
🔸Odds still doubt Indiana. Why?
🔸Notre Dame's and Oregon's favorable paths.
🔸Texas Tech's fatal flaw.
🔸Alabama's seven games of run struggles.
via @Covers: https://t.co/XkHfZ0KyiP https://t.co/2DagmMp9G7
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Oregon -20.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Do not fault the James Madison Dukes for making the Playoff field. It is not their fault that Larry Scott did not understand the fundamentals of TV finances as Pac-12 commissioner. It is neither James Madison’s nor Tulane’s fault that numerous Pac-12 schools so woefully mishandled pandemic funds that they desperately needed any cash they could get their hands on just as they neared the enrollment cliff from the 2008 financial crisis, thus leading to the fracturing of the fifth "Power” conference.
The Playoff language giving automatic berths to the five highest-ranked conference champions was intentionally designed to keep the Playoff legally viable, clearing antitrust concerns. It left a theoretical pathway for a Group of Five champion to reach this vaunted postseason, but originally not a practical one as long as there were five Power conferences.
The death of the Pac-12, however, forced the need for a Group of Five team to be in the Playoff every year as the fifth of those ranked conference champions. Enter Tulane.
And it is only the ACC’s fault that its subsequent bloat did not prompt appropriate tiebreakers, leaving an opening for five-loss Duke to win the conference championship and vault the Dukes into the Playoff. The ACC’s insistence on tripping over itself forced the surprise need for James Madison this year.
It will be a short postseason for the Dukes. They struggled with Troy in the Sun Belt title game. And let’s be painfully clear: Troy’s offense is wretched, ranking No. 119 in the country in the regular season in expected points added (EPA) per offensive snap, per CFB-graphs.com. Yet while quarterback Goose Crowder was healthy, the Trojans made the Dukes miserable.
Oregon should run this up early. James Madison may notch an opening-drive score, courtesy of the script, but after that, expect this game to be one-sided.
And when you see the toughest accounts on social media then lamenting the game’s existence at all, point them toward the ACC’s rules and the Pac-12’s failures, not at James Madison. The Dukes are in the Playoff because of those mistakes, along with the legal need to keep the Playoff possible for the Group of Five’s best.
Alabama/Oklahoma Under 41.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
The No. 2 rushing defense in the country in terms of EPA per rush against, facing an offense that rushed for 20 yards on 13 carries, sacks adjusted, on Saturday. This could get ugly for Alabama’s offense.
As bad as that sounds, it will actually be worse.
The Oklahoma Sooners will not have to worry about the Tide running the ball — Alabama has increasingly given up on any ground attack — at which point Oklahoma’s defensive line will pin its ears back and harass Tide quarterback Ty Simpson.
If looking for Friday night entertainment to start the Playoff, Oklahoma's defensive line may be your best hope. This Sooners offense ranked No. 110 in the country in points per quality drive, not even averaging a field goal once into scoring territory.
A one-dimensional offense against one of the country’s best defenses, plus an offense incapable of consistently finishing drives, equals an Under no matter how low this total falls.
New Mexico moneyline (+152 at DraftKings)
The New Mexico Lobos’ frustrating offense should confuse a Minnesota Golden Gophers defense that will be down a few players by kickoff on Dec. 26.
Houston -3 (-110 at BetMGM)
The LSU Tigers should have followed the lead of Kansas State, Iowa State, and Notre Dame, not to mention the likes of Florida State, Auburn, UCF, Baylor, and Rutgers. Yes, more than half a dozen teams aside from the Irish also turned down bowl games on Sunday; it's almost like the college football season stretches from August 1 to January 1, and these players are exhausted.
Look at this year's Dublin game.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 7, 2025
More fanfare and hype than any bowl game will have.
And now ... Kansas State and Iowa State both have December off. https://t.co/kg3U3xzoLt
Anyway, LSU is going to be miserable playing against Willie Fritz’s run-always ethos.
