College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction & Odds to Make the CFP – Week 11

The first College Football Playoff rankings from the selection committee finally arrive this week, and not a moment too soon.

The weekly reveals throughout November are unnecessary, accomplishing nothing but providing fodder for talking heads. The week-to-week changes do not matter, as has been very clear year after year.

But the first set of rankings provides us a baseline, and there are two sets of persistent wonders, one among teams positioning to host a first-round game and one among teams scrapping for the final at-large spot.

College Football Playoff bracket prediction

• 5) Georgia vs. 12) Tulane
• 8) Mississippi vs. 9) Louisville
• 6) Texas Tech vs. 11) Vanderbilt
• 7) Oregon vs. 10) Notre Dame
• BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Alabama, 3) Texas A&M, 4) Indiana

CFP Bracket analysis

The top four here have become rather clear. Until one of Ohio State, Indiana, Alabama, and Texas A&M stumbles, it should be assumed that the winners of the Big Ten and SEC title games will have the top two Playoff seeds, while the losers will still have first-round byes.

Then it must be wondered who will host the first-round Playoff games on Dec. 19 and 20. Oregon, Texas Tech, Georgia, and Mississippi should have first claims on them, even if only the Red Raiders win their conference. Those four have one loss apiece, only Texas Tech’s loss an actual blemish, and all four should finish their regular seasons 11-1.

The exact order of those four can be heavily debated. The committee’s initial rankings will shed light on that. Perhaps Oregon’s double overtime win at Penn State has not aged well enough to remain as high as No. 5, but the Ducks will end the season with more impressive wins than the Rebels, hence staying at No. 7.

To finish any projections, two questions remain.

1) Who is going to win the ACC?

2) Who deserves the final at-large spot?

Two ACC scenarios need to be pondered, both requiring a look at Georgia Tech’s and Louisville’s schedules. The shortest version of this is: The Cardinals play only one of the ACC’s four worst teams this season (Boston College, joined by North Carolina, Syracuse and Florida State). The Yellow Jackets play two. That difference likely will drop Georgia Tech in any tiebreaker scenario with Louisville.

So if Virginia beats Duke in two weeks, then Louisville and Virginia should get a rematch in the ACC championship, with the Cardinals distinct favorites to exact revenge.

Conclusion: Virginia needs to beat Duke on Nov. 15.
11-1 Virginia vs. 11-1 Louisville in the ACC title game might propel both into the College Football Playoff.
Virginia's loss: One-possession, early September, on the road (NC State)
Louisville's loss: One-possession to Virginia https://t.co/U99bx0s1N6 pic.twitter.com/7HnEkrNTDd

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2025

More likely, Duke will beat Virginia in two weeks to eventually create a four-way tie atop the ACC, with the Blue Devils joining the Cardinals in the ACC title game again in part because of relative ACC schedule strength.

All of which is to say, Louisville currently has the best path to the Playoff for the suddenly one-bid ACC.

Then there must be a debate about that final at-large spot. Notre Dame’s 10-game winning streak following two quality one-possession losses should assure the Irish a Playoff spot, as unlikely as that seemed in early September. But who fits in before probable American champion Tulane?

Oklahoma suffering a third loss at Alabama and Texas suffering a third loss at Georgia, or against Texas A&M, will knock out the SEC’s expected candidates for a fifth Playoff contestant. If Cincinnati beats BYU the weekend before Thanksgiving, the Bearcats likely will end the Big 12’s hopes of being a two-bid league. And that should be the expectation in what may be quietly the biggest remaining game of the college football season.

Is BYU vs Cincinnati the weekend before Thanksgiving the most impactful remaining game on the Playoff field?
Cinci wins: 10-2 heading into the Big 12 title vs Texas Tech. Win and Big 12 gets two in?
BYU wins: 11-1 heading into the Big 12 title. Big 12 gets two in regardless? pic.twitter.com/pcxtp4FGKq

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 3, 2025

Enter Vanderbilt. At 10-2, the Commodores should be ahead of 10-2 Cincinnati, so losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game would not be what knocks the Bearcats out of the Playoff. And at 10-2, Vanderbilt would be able to claim wins against both Missouri and Tennessee, a strong enough résumé to warrant Playoff consideration.

That scenario will certainly put Diego Pavia into one more dramatic situation.

I do not ask for much.
A Thanksgiving Saturday with Vanderbilt on the road at Tennessee, the Commodores into the Playoff with a win?
Put that into my veins along with Thanksgiving ham, please and thank you very much. pic.twitter.com/LpgIqSDzgL

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 4, 2025

Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff

Team	Conference
Texas A&M Aggies	SEC	-6000
Mississippi Rebels	SEC	-1200
Alabama Crimson Tide	SEC	-1200
Georgia Bulldogs	SEC	-500
Oregon Ducks	Big Ten	-470
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	IND	-355
Texas Tech Red Raiders	Big 12	-300
BYU Cougars	Big 12	+156
Texas Longhorns	SEC	+168
Louisville Cardinals	ACC	+198
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	ACC	+270
Vanderbilt Commodores	SEC	+320
Miami Hurricanes	ACC	+490

Odds as of 11-4.

Important dates for the College Football Playoff

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