College football administrators were so panicked over Boise State and Arizona State losing in their first College Football Playoff games they changed the 12-team format to further reduce the broad competitive nature of it.
The Top 4 seeds are no longer reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Instead, multiple teams from the same conference can receive first-round byes in the CFP.
Even Notre Dame can now receive one without ever considering a conference championship game, originally an important concession from the Irish when the expanded Playoff first became reality.
But those SEC and Big Ten administrators were so distraught over the idea of a lesser team putting together an excellent regular season and being rewarded for it, they even eased the path to a title for the 11-time national champion Irish.
With that change, projecting a Playoff bracket became more difficult. Settling on four conference champions to fill the top four seeds was far easier than pondering possible at-large entries.
College Football Playoff bracket prediction
Round 1
- 5) Texas vs. 12) Utah
- 8) Georgia vs. 9) Texas Tech
- 6) Oregon vs. 11) Boise State
- 7) Miami vs. 10) LSU
- BYES: 1) Penn State 2) Alabama 3) Clemson 4) Notre Dame
The biggest surprise in this projected bracket is who is not in it: Defending national champions and preseason No. 3 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are replacing both their offensive and defensive coordinators as well as their starting quarterback.
Pairing a first-time offensive coordinator (Brian Hartline) with a first-time starting quarterback (Julian Sayin) is not a recipe for beating Texas in Week 1 or even Penn State on Nov. 1. Let’s not discuss the psychological Baba Yaga that will be the regular-season finale at Michigan.
Farewell, Ohio State.
Hello Penn State, modeling itself after Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024 by emphasizing its players who were fringe NFL prospects. Using NIL to bring back third- and fourth-round draft picks is the most reliable way to raise your ceiling in modern college football.
Star quarterback Drew Allar studying under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki for another year should lead to significant development, a worry for any and all Big Ten defenses.
The Tide is coming in the SEC
Then comes Alabama for three reasons. First of all, the Tide have the best offensive line-defensive line combination in the SEC. Second of all, the SEC scheduling matrix did Alabama many favors, giving it only three games against the top half of the conference, with just one of those on the road — at Georgia — after an idle week.
Lastly, this is head coach Kalen DeBoer’s second year in Tuscaloosa. In his three previous stops, DeBoer improved his team’s record by at least three games in his second season. Alabama went 9-3 last regular season. Improving that by three games would certainly earn a No. 1 seed.
How the rest of the field shakes out
If Clemson beats LSU in Week 1, in whatever part thanks to homefield advantage, a 12-1 record would be somewhat a disappointment in Cade Klubnik’s final season.
Notre Dame opens the season at Miami and then enjoys an idle week before hosting Texas A&M; favored in both of those games, if the Irish drop one, they should still go 11-1 this year.
Texas and Georgia face each other in Athens in mid-November. The winner should likely reach the SEC title game, while the loser, better still, have Playoff confidence.
Deferring to the Longhorns in that matchup is, in no small part, due to outright doubt in Bulldogs’ quarterback Gunner Stockton. Remove one chunk gain in the Sugar Bowl, and Stockton averaged just 5.39 yards on 31 other passing attempts.
Oregon’s schedule is too weak for a team that has recruited as well as Dan Lanning’s operation has in recent years. Miami’s excellent defense should overcome most of head coach Mario Cristobal’s inevitable mistakes, and the moments it struggles could be picked up by transfer quarterback Carson Beck’s strong arm. LSU’s offense should propel it to a 9-3 record even if losing in Week 1 at Clemson.
Life beyond the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC
That leaves the Big 12 and the Group of Five. Texas Tech has one of the highest floors in the Big 12, and its schedule sets up nicely to reach the conference title game. The same goes for Utah.
And while Boise State will not get as many headlines as it did last year with Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos may be even better this season.
A loss at Notre Dame in mid-October should not doom postseason hopes — certainly not when Boise State is head and shoulders better than the rest of the Mountain West — and it does not look like anyone will go undefeated in the other Group of Five conferences.
Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff
| Team | Conference |  |
|---|---|---|
 Texas |
SEC | -350 |
 Penn State |
Big Ten | -325 |
 Ohio State |
Big Ten | -300 |
 Georgia |
SEC | -290 |
 Clemson |
ACC | -192 |
 Oregon |
Big Ten | -192 |
 Alabama |
SEC | -184 |
 Notre Dame |
Independent | -160 |
 LSU |
SEC | +116 |
 Boise State |
Mountain West | +184 |
 Mississippi |
SEC | +186 |
 Miami |
ACC | +198 |
 Michigan |
Big Ten | +225 |
 Texas A&M |
SEC | +235 |
 Tennessee |
SEC | +300 |
Important dates for the College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 19-20 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. winner of 12/5 No. 1 vs. winner of 9/8 No. 3 vs winner of 11/6 No. 2 vs winner of 10/7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 8 | Fiesta Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 9 | Peach Bowl |
| Championship | January 19 | CFP National Championship Game |
