It’s a classic “Pac-12 After Dark” matchup as the California Bears visit the Oregon State Beavers tonight.
Cal turns to a freshman transfer at quarterback after losing a star under center, while Oregon State debuts a transfer QB of its own as the Beavers push for a bowl return.
Find out why I'm backing the home side in our California vs. Oregon State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 30.
Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, with the game airing on ESPN.
California vs Oregon State prediction
California vs Oregon State best bet: Oregon State -1.5 (-112)
A freshman quarterback who has never thrown a collegiate pass, starting on the road in a hostile environment against a team whose fans despise your program…what could go wrong?
That’s the question facing California on Saturday, when Oregon transfer Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele will lead his offense onto the field. He will do so with an offense that has lost nearly every bit of productivity from a season ago, and in front of an Oregon State crowd that still hates Cal for bailing on the Pac 12.
Cal lost 37 players to the portal, including quarterback Fernando Mendoza and running backs Jaydn Ott and Jaivian Thomas. Tight end Jack Endries also hit the market. They’re also implementing a new offense under new coordinator Bryan Harsin.
That forced the Bears to reload at nearly every position, with quite a few players coming in from Group of 5 schools. Sagapolutele traveled south from Oregon, where he was a highly-touted recruit. He will operate behind a retooled offensive line after Cal allowed the third-most tackles for loss and had some of the worst pass protection grades at the FBS level.
While the Beavers lost quite a bit of talent as well, they’ve kept multiple key players on offense. Leading rusher Anthony Hankerson returns after gaining nearly 1,100 yards and scoring 15 touchdowns, while Trent Walker and his 81 catches for 901 yards also came back.
Taking the helm of their offense is Maalik Murphy. The Duke transfer ranked in the Top 25 nationally last year with almost 3,000 passing yards, and Top 15 with 26 touchdown passes. He appears to be an upgrade over Gevani McCoy, who transferred to Temple after a poor campaign.
Oregon State struggled to make plays downfield last season with McCoy. That won’t be a problem with Murphy, whose final pass at Duke was a 39-yd dime as time expired to beat Wake Forest.
Cal’s defense thrived last season on forcing turnovers but are also breaking in a pair of new co-coordinators. Murphy and the rushing game will allow Oregon State to control the clock and limit mistakes. The Bears will find it hard to put together consistent drives, and the Beavers will win this one comfortably.
California vs Oregon State same-game parlay
Oregon State has the more experienced quarterback, playing at home. I anticipate the Beavers getting the win with clutch drives late, or being far enough out in front that they can force Sagapolutele into desperate mistakes. That will lead to points either directly off the turnover or off the short field, and they’ll outscore the Bears in the final period.
Cal’s run defense is solid and returns multiple starters, but its secondary has been fully replaced. Walker now has a quarterback who can throw it deep downfield, and I like him to find the endzone at some point.
Our deep-ball SGP: Experience Gives Beavers the Advantage
Murphy’s going to need to push the ball down the field against Cal’s defense, and this number is much lower than I expected it to be. Murphy threw for fewer than at least 235 yards in eight games last season, including his last five, and put up big numbers against some solid defenses.
Cal’s offense will struggle early on, and it’s hard to see them putting up points from the outset. Oregon State’s going to score, but they’re also breaking in a new quarterback and will want to at least try to establish the run game. I’ll take the Under to hit for the fourth time in Oregon State’s last five games.
California vs Oregon State game predictions
California vs Oregon State moneyline prediction
Cal has struggled to pull out close games the past few years, and haven’t won in Corvallis since 2018. With 16 new starters, including special teams, getting the win on the road will be extremely difficult.
California vs Oregon State spread prediction
We are backing the Beavers to cover the spread. A two-point win is easily attainable behind the arm of Murphy, and they’ll have an amped-up crowd at their back. They’ve got the better quarterback, more quality pieces on offense, and will get the job done.
California vs Oregon State Over/Under prediction
I lean towards the Under here. Cal’s offense is fully starting over, and asking a freshman quarterback to lead drives in a tough environment will be tricky. Oregon State will find it tough to run the ball against Cal’s solid front seven, which could limit some drives.
California vs Oregon State odds
- Spread: California +1.5 (-108) | Oregon State -1.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: California +100 | Oregon State -120
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-105) | Under 49.5 (-115)
California vs Oregon State trend to know
Oregon State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 58% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for California vs Oregon State.
How to watch California vs Oregon State
| Location | Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR |
| Date | Saturday, August 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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