College Gameday will roll into Lubbock on Saturday as the Texas Tech Red Raiders welcome the BYU Cougars in a pivotal Big 12 showdown.
The Cougars come in off a needed bye week with an unbeaten 8-0 record as they control their own destiny, but the Red Raiders will be their biggest test and are favored by more than 10 points.
Here are my BYU vs. Texas Tech predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
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BYU vs Texas Tech predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early BYU vs Texas Tech spread pick: Texas Tech -10.5
Let me start by saying the BYU Cougars have really impressed me this season. Bear Bachmeier is a solid quarterback, and the team has zero quit in them.
That said, unless things drastically change, it’s hard to see the Texas Tech Red Raiders not winning this one by double-digits. That’s in large part because BYU won’t get away with another slow start on the road.
The Cougars managed just 10 first-half points against Utah and narrowly won the Holy War. The game turned when Devon Dampier got banged up and stopped running after halftime.
They also trailed Colorado 14-3 before rallying for a win, had to overcome a 10-point hole in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona, and were down 24-10 to Iowa State halfway through the second quarter.
None of those teams can put up points the way Texas Tech does. BYU struggles at times to contain explosive pass plays, and that’s an area where the Red Raiders thrive.
The Red Raiders weren’t great by any means this weekend against Kansas State, and yet still won by 23 points on the road — their lowest margin of victory this season. And they found success on the ground, with J’Koby Williams having his best game of the season.
BYU has been dealing with injuries in the secondary, and both starting safeties are questionable for Saturday’s game. Behren Morton will punish the Cougars through the air, and the Cougars won’t overcome another slow start in front of a crowd amped up by a College Gameday appearance.
Texas Tech has covered the spread in four straight games when favored by double digits, and will do so again Saturday.
Early BYU vs Texas Tech total pick: Over 53.5
All that said, I’m expecting BYU to put up points. As I mentioned, there’s zero quit in this Cougar team. And while Texas Tech has a strong front seven, the Cougars rank 13th in EPA/rush and have a Top-25 success rate on run plays.
They also run the ball more than 4% than expected, which is why they rank 25th in early down EPA. They rank Top 30 in explosive run rate and will use the RPO and option attack to put pressure on the edge rushers.
On the flip side, BYU ranks in the bottom half of the country in explosive pass rate given up, as well as 72nd in quality drive rate allowed. The Red Raiders will find success behind Behren’s arm, and BYU’s defense can be run on. I expect we'll see Williams utilized again to help protect Behran’s health.
In games where the Cougars have come up against competent offenses, they’ve gone well past the total. Their refusal to quit, no matter how far behind they fall, will help push the Red Raiders to keep scoring and drive the score north of the total.
BYU vs Texas Tech odds
- BYU vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -10.5
- BYU vs. Texas Tech moneyline: BYU +300, Texas Tech -390
- BYU vs. Texas Tech Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch BYU vs Texas Tech
- BYU vs. Texas Tech matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Lubbock, TX
- Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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