The Massachusetts Minutemen have their final chance to win a game this season when they host the Bowling Green Falcons in MACtion today. Kickoff for this special Thanksgiving week game is at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
The Falcons have failed to cover four straight times, and my Bowling Green vs. UMass predictions don’t see that pattern changing on the road.
Here are my free college football picks for Tuesday, November 25.
Bowling Green vs UMass prediction
Bowling Green vs UMass best bet: UMass +14.5 (-105)
The UMass Minutemen haven’t won a game this season, but Tuesday’s matchup suggests the Minutemen can stay inside this inflated number.
The Bowling Green Falcons are being asked to cover more than two touchdowns despite having one of the least explosive offenses in the MAC, averaging just 153.4 passing yards per game and 3.75 yards per carry.
That makes it difficult for the Falcons to create the type of scoring margin implied by this spread.
Defensively, UMass has major issues, but Bowling Green doesn’t have the downfield passing attack or the rushing game to exploit them fully.
The Minutemen quietly defend the pass better than their reputation suggests, allowing only 12.55 yards per completion, and they should be able to keep the Falcons' offense in front of them for most of the night.
Offensively, UMass can run the ball well enough against a Falcons defense giving up 4.26 yards per carry to extend drives, keep the clock winding, and keep Bowling Green from blowing them out.
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Bowling Green vs UMass same-game parlay
Bowling Green running back Austyn Dendy has rushed for more than 89 yards in three of his four games this season, up against a UMass defense allowing 216.2 rushing yards per game.
UMass wideout Jacquon Gibson has hauled in at least five receptions in eight straight games and meets a Bowling Green defense allowing 13 yards per reception this season.
Bowling Green vs UMass 3-leg SGP
- UMass +14.5
- Jacquon Gibson Over 48.5 receiving yards
- Austyn Dendy Over 88.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Dowling gets it done
UMass tight end Max Dowling has hauled in two touchdown passes this season and faces a Bowling Green defense that’s allowed 13 touchdown passes this season.
Bowling Green vs UMass 4-leg SGP
- UMass +14.5
- Jacquon Gibson Over 48.5 receiving yards
- Austyn Dendy Over 88.5 rushing yards
- Max Dowling anytime TD
Bowling Green vs UMass game predictions
Bowling Green vs UMass moneyline prediction
Both teams have struggled in the win column, but the Massachusetts Minutemen’s struggles are much deeper. UMass hasn’t won a game, and they will likely lose this one as well.
Bowling Green vs UMass spread prediction
I like UMass to cover. Bowling Green is 0-5 ATS this season when favored, and asking them to cover three scores on the road is a big ask.
Bowling Green vs UMass Over/Under prediction
I’ll lean Over as nine of the past 12 UMass games have ended Over the game total.
Bowling Green vs UMass odds
- Spread: Bowling Green -13.5 (-115) | UMass +13.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Bowling Green -600 | UMass +450
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
Bowling Green vs UMass trend to know
Bowling Green has only covered the Spread in 4 of their last 13 games (-5.90 Units / -41% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Bowling Green vs UMass.
How to watch Bowling Green vs UMass
| Location | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA |
| Date | Tuesday, November 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Bowling Green vs UMass latest injuries
Bowling Green vs UMass weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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