Week 5 of the college football season has arrived and there’s another full slate of games on the board for this weekend. One emerging market in the space involves player props, in which more books are offering more lines each weekend.
I’ve sifted through this week’s college football odds and found three player props worth betting on Saturday.
Can star running back Nicholas Singleton get back on track in a soft matchup? Are the Texas Tech Red Raiders broken offensively, or was last week just a blip on the radar? Will the Texas Longhorns have yet another big offensive showing against the Kansas Jayhawks with Xavier Worthy making plays?
I answer those questions in my Week 5 college football player prop picks for Saturday, September 30.
College football props for Week 5
- Nicholas Singleton Over 74.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Behren Morton Over 239.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Xavier Worthy Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made on September 29 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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College football player props this week
Selling low on Singleton? I’ll buy.
Nicholas Singleton is one of the most explosive players in college football. The Penn State running back will be a high NFL Draft pick thanks to his combination of size, power, and speed. He made his presence known by rushing for 1,061 yards and 12 touchdowns as a true freshman a season ago and will look for more productive days ahead as one of the focal points offensively for a very good Nittany Lions team.
His numbers are down a bit to start the year as he’s managed just 3.8 yards per carry, which is three full yards below last year’s average. The opportunity arises in Week 5 for a breakthrough performance against an overmatched Northwestern Wildcats team.
Northwestern has allowed at least 100 rushing yards in every game this season and has been gashed by opposing ground games two weeks in a row, first surrendering 268 rushing yards on 6.7 yards per carry and five touchdowns against the Duke Blue Devils, and then allowing 244 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Duke and Minnesota are capable rushing teams, but neither have a player the caliber of Singleton. In fact, most teams don’t have a weapon that is comparable to Singleton — you don’t see backs like him very often. True freshman Darius Taylor ran for 198 yards on this defense a week ago, and Duke had three ball carriers eclipse 60 rushing yards.
Northwestern ranks 96th in rushing explosiveness, so while Singleton hasn’t broken enough chunk gains yet this season, he’ll have every opportunity to do so on Saturday. I like this as a buy-low spot.
Nicholas Singleton prop: Over 74.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Morton hears no boos
The Texas Tech Red Raiders averaged 302.5 passing yards per game a year ago. Their quarterback’s passing yardage prop on Saturday is set at 239.5 despite the fact that nearly the entire passing attack returns this season, and they continue to operate at the quickest tempo in the nation. That number is off, and I’ll be playing the Over.
Tyler Shough went down with a broken left fibula last week and the offense never got going, managing just 13 points and 321 total yards. Still, it was a wet, rainy, muddy, and overall nasty day in Morgantown and I think it’d be foolish to project this offense going forward based on its worst performance in two and a half years.
Behren Morton is the next man up under center and he has plenty of experience considering Shough is unfortunately injured more often than not. The third-year player has attempted 222 passes in his career and made three starts last year in lieu of an injured Shough. His average passing yards per game in those starts equates to 285.3 yards per game — 45 yards higher than where his prop is set in Week 5.
The Red Raiders will have every opportunity to get back on track with a full week of preparation for Morton as the starter and a juicy matchup on deck against the Houston Cougars, who rank 102nd in EPA per pass and 93rd in passing success rate.
Behren Morton prop: Over 239.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Worthy of a bet
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been a force since setting foot on campus two years ago as a true freshman. He’s amassed 1,993 receiving yards since then and is firmly entrenched as one of the country’s premier speedsters out wide.
He’s been Texas’ top wide receiver yet again this season, leading the team in targets (28), receptions (19), and receiving touchdowns (3), while ranking second in receiving yards (252) narrowly behind only tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. The books have decided to set his receiving yards prop in the low 60s, and that’s a number that’s simply too low for me to look the other way.
Worthy gets a good matchup against a Kansas Jayhawks secondary that ranks 107th in passing success rate. The Jayhawks have yet to face a team with an above-average passing offense and yet have still shown vulnerabilities at times. A week ago, the BYU Cougars chose to throw the ball 51 times against this defense, and quarterback Kedon Slovis threw for 357 yards — his highest output since October of 2021.
Quinn Ewers and this offense should be able to cook at home here against a beatable Kansas defense. The Longhorns have yet to find play their ‘A’ game consistently on offense and yet still rank 11th in EPA per play and fifth in success rate. The passing attack has been potent thanks in large part to the Ewers to Worthy connection, ranking 12th in EPA per pass and third in passing success rate while Ewers has managed 9.2 yards per attempt.
Xavier Worthy prop: Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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