It’s Rivalry Week, which means it’s the final opportunity for teams to polish up their resumes for the College Football Playoff committee, and I’ve got some bets on some of the biggest games.
Including, of course, The Game between Ohio State and Michigan, where Jeremiah Smith will be the catalyst in ending the Wolverines' winning streak. While Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt will try to make program history as they take on in-state rivals, Tennessee.
For even more Rivalry Week picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 14
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M -2.5 |
-110 |
 Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards |
+100 |
 Vanderbilt Team Total Over 31.5 |
-114 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +588 |
Texas A&M -2.5
Straight up. Have we not been watching the Texas Longhorns all season?
I don’t get this spread at all. And I’m just telling you right away, I ran to back Texas A&M at less than a field goal here.
Yes. This is a rivalry game, and the Texas Longhorns are at home. And yes. This is a talented roster except at the position where it matters the most.
Simply put, Arch Manning has just not been good enough. I don’t care if he’s put up some good numbers lately. What I see is inflated numbers against bad teams that have been padded by a lot of YAC yards. His reads are still too slow, and he has his uncle's penchant for throwing ducks without the timing or accuracy.
It’s stunning that a Texas team with this much offensive firepower and talent ranks 87th in the country in offensive success rate. But that is exactly where we stand heading into this matchup with Texas A&M.
On top of that, anyone who has been paying attention to Texas saw what was coming against Georgia. The Longhorns probably should have lost to Kentucky and Mississippi State before escaping vs. Vanderbilt. So, when they finally came across a good team again, the result wasn’t shocking.
That’s exactly what the Aggies are. A really good team. Marcel Reed has developed into a dynamic quarterback, while the Aggies' defense is one of the best in the country at pressuring opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions.
As a result, Texas A&M enters this game in the Top 10 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play while leading the nation in sack rate.
And now we know the Aggies have some fight in them. They could have folded down 30-3 to South Carolina last week, but fought all the way back.
I still can’t believe we are getting the clearly better team at less than a field goal.
Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards
With all the success Ohio State has had recently, it’s easy to forget that the Buckeyes have lost The Game against hated Michigan in four consecutive seasons, with the Wolverines winning three of those games as outright underdogs.
(Don’t worry, those in Ann Arbor will be quick to remind you.)
Ohio State is the favorite once again. This time around, it’s 10.5 points. Now, that didn’t matter last year when the Buckeyes were 19.5-point chalk, and the Wolverines won a 13-10 slobber knocker of a game.
But what gives me pause about Michigan’s chances to pull off the upset this time around is its ability to do what it did last year. And that’s relying on its defense to shut a team like the Buckeyes down.
Michigan enters this game with an 8-2 record, but necessarily hasn’t necessarily looked that good. Just look at the spreads. The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, with four of those being unable to cover by double digits.
The problem is the Wolverines' pass defense. Teams have been able to throw on them all season long. Even New Mexico threw for over 200 yards against them. As a result, Michigan ranks 84th in success rate on dropbacks. And now they have to deal with Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and the Buckeys' passing game.
Ohio State leads the nation in EPA per dropback and success rate on dropbacks, and that’s without Smith lighting the world on fire.
When you ask most people, they’ll tell you the best player in college football is Smith. But the Buckeyes’ wideout has a modest 902 yards and 10 touchdowns.
But I’m betting that Smith and Co., this is the time to peak. He has topped the century mark in two of the last three games and has had 97 or more in three of the last four. So, give me Smith to go for 80+ receiving yards at even money. Something he’s done six times this season.
Vanderbilt Team Total Over 31.5
The magical run by the Vanderbilt Commodores comes to a head this weekend. Vandy enters this weekend ranked 14th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. A win not only gives them their first 10-win season in program history, it also gives them a shot at the CFP.
But that won’t matter at all if the ‘Dores can’t earn a win in Knoxville against in-state rival Tennessee.
Vanderbilt is, of course, led by QB Diego Pavia. The exciting dual-threat signal-caller has done it all for the Commodores, throwing for 2,924 yards with 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions while adding 661 yards and eight scores on the ground.
Combine Pavia with some elite weapons like Sedrick Alexander and Eli Stowers, and you have one of the best offenses in the country. Vandy enters this game ranked second in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. They’ve scored 31 or more points in five of their seven SEC matchups, including 45 in each of the last two.
I’m betting that the Commodores don’t slow down in this matchup against the Volunteers.
Even though it was months ago, it feels like the Tennessee Volunteers’ season got derailed when it collapsed in an early-season matchup against Georgia. The Volunteers are 7-3 this season, with the most impressive win coming against Kentucky or Mississippi State. They are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
The Vols offense will do its thing, but Josh Heupel's defense is still an issue.
Tennessee has surrendered at least 31 points in six of its seven SEC games this season, and it has been gashed by the run. The Vols rank 121st in the country in defensive success rate vs. the rush. That has resulted in them giving up lots of long scoring drives. They rank 77th in quality drive rate and 100th in points per quality drive.
Pavia and the Commodores running backs will roll on the ground here, which will, in turn, open things up through the air. Vandy will hit enough explosive plays to cash the Over on their team total.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 14
Texas A&M -2.5
Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards
Vanderbilt Team Total Over 31.5
My weekly Triple Option column is 17-19 this season for -2.9 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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