The college football calendar has officially hit November, but I still think many are still trying to figure out which teams are actually good or not. Sportsbooks included.
I’ve identified a couple of matchups for my college football best bets where I think the wrong team is favored, and there’s nothing better than betting moneyline dogs at this point in the season.
For even more Week 10 picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 10
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Vanderbilt moneyline |
+130 |
 Duke moneyline |
+130 |
 Haynes King Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes |
+120 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +1063 |
Vanderbilt ml
What are we doing here?
I know it’s Texas. On the road. But can we please put some more respect on Vanderbilt and my boy Diego Pavia’s name?
Vandy responded to their loss to Alabama with back-to-back impressive victories over LSU and Missouri. Pavia has been awesome, throwing for 1,698 yards with 15 touchdowns while adding 458 yards and five scores.
But it’s more than just Pavia. He has a do-it-all back in Sederick Alexander and an NLF-calibre tight end in Eli Stowers. This is an elite offense. The Commodores rank fifth in both EPA per play and success rate.
Yes, the Longhorns have a very good defense. But if there is a team that can go right at them, it’s this Vandy team.
But that’s only half of the equation.
Texas might be the luckiest 6-2 Power Four team in recent memory. The Longhorns should have lost to Mississippi State. They should have lost to Kentucky. And have were blown out by a Florida team that has already fired its head coach.
The problem is that Arch Manning and the offense have just not been good. Manning doesn’t work through his progressions well, and when he does make a decision, the ball comes out late and quacking a lot of the time.
As a result, Texas ranks a stunning 101st in offensive success rate and 110th on dropbacks. An underrated part of this matchup is the Vandy defense, which is a solid 39th in opponent EPA per play and 38th in success rate.
Vandy is the better football team here, people, and is going to win this one outright.
Duke ml
The Duke Blue Devils visit the Clemson Tigers this week. Clemson is favored by 3.5 points, which usually isn’t out of the ordinary. But 2025 is a different college football season.
Clemson came into this season with a ton of hype and a mountain of expectations, and to say the Tigers haven’t met those is an understatement. It began with the season-opening loss to LSU. Then came back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse before falling to SMU last week.
Cade Klubnik did not take the next step in his development, and the Tigers aren’t getting much out of the running game. Meanwhile, what was supposed to be a ferocious defense front has looked average at best. Clemson ranks 70th in EPA per dropback and 68th in success rate on dropbacks.
That isn’t a good thing, going against Duke’s Darian Mensah. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Mensah has looked really good lately. The sophomore QB has thrown for 2,211 yards with 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Manny Diaz has another solid defense, but the way you attack them through the air, and I’m not sure Clemson is equipped to take advantage of that.
While Duke is coming off a loss to Georgia Tech, it was the Blue Devils' first conference loss of the season, so they still have something to fight for. This is a lost season for the Tigers. I think that Clemson is favored here because they are called Clemson, so I’m taking Duke on the moneyline to pull off the upset.
Haynes King Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Georgia Tech is 8-0 for the first time since 1966, and QB Haynes King is a huge reason why.
The dual-threat QB is having a standout season, having thrown for 1,480 yards while completing more than 70% of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception, while adding another 651 yards and a whopping 12 scores on the ground.
And I don’t expect him to slow down in Saturday night’s matchup against the North Carolina State Wolfpack.
NC State has dropped four straight games against ACC opponents (plus Notre Dame), surrendering nearly 40 points per game in those losses, and now ranks 114th in opponent yards per play. They have also been cooked by opposing QBs lately.
Notre Dame’s CJ Carr threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns two games ago, before Pitt’s Mason Heintschel threw for 423 yards and three scores last week.
And it has been interesting to watch to see how Georgia Tech deploys its star quarterback on a game-to-game basis. If their opponent struggles to stop a running QB, King will rumble all over you, but last week, vs. a suspect Syracuse secondary, he threw three touchdowns.
King’s touchdown passes prop for this matchup is sitting at 1.5 with the Over at solid plus money.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 10
Vanderbilt ml
Duke ml
Haynes King Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
My weekly Triple Option column is 11-13 this season for -2.88 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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