One of Week 2’s standout college football matchups sees the Baylor Bears hit the road to face the SMU Mustangs in a strong non-conference showdown.
Find out why I’m backing the Bears in my Baylor vs. SMU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Baylor vs SMU prediction
Baylor vs SMU best bet: Josh Cameron Over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
Bookmakers expect points in bunches in a game with a total of 65.5 as of the time of this writing. Considering the Baylor Bears’ 38-24 loss to Auburn in the opener, it’s understandable.
Baylor’s offense wasn’t at fault in the loss, generating 23 first downs and 483 total yards. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson is one of the sport’s most effective quarterbacks in the country and got off to a hot start, throwing for 419 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
He spread the ball around as four different receivers topped 50 yards. Surprisingly, last year’s leading receiver, Josh Cameron, was fourth on that list with just two receptions for 54 yards. Expect a quick bounce back for the top receiving target on one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.
Cameron was electric when he had the ball, forcing three missed tackles on just two touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and should find room to work against an SMU defense that has a ton of turnover after last year’s surprisingly stingy results.
Cameron has gone Over 49.5 receiving yards in nine of his last 14 games and will make that 10 of 15 in Week 2.
Baylor vs SMU same-game parlay
It’s not time to throw Baylor in the trash just yet after the Auburn loss, as that’s a quality SEC team that underplayed its metrics a year ago but was due for a bounce back.
That being said, the defense showed vulnerabilities up front, especially defending the QB rush (Jackson Arnold had 137 rushing yards and two scores).
That’ll be tough to fix in one week, especially going up against another terrific dual-threat in Kevin Jennings, who should contribute more with his legs this season for an offense missing Brashard Smith’s 18 touchdowns from a year ago.
Baylor vs SMU same-game parlay
- Baylor +2.5
- Josh Cameron Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
- Kevin Jennings Score a Touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Dual-threat QBs
- Robertson's legs will contribute after being injured in 2024
- SMU lost three defensive line starters and two linebackers from last year’s defense.
Baylor vs SMU same-game parlay
- Baylor +2.5
- Josh Cameron Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
- Kevin Jennings Score a Touchdown
- Sawyer Robertson Score a Touchdown
Baylor vs SMU game predictions
Baylor vs SMU moneyline prediction
Baylor will pull off the upset on the road against an SMU team that only outgained an FCS school (Texas A&M-Commerce) 400 to 351 in total yards last week.
Baylor vs SMU spread prediction
There’s been action on the underdog in the market for good reason; Baylor will cover the short spread.
Baylor vs SMU Over/Under prediction
This total is too high for my liking. Although both offenses should find success, 65.5 points is a significant amount in today’s college football, considering the moving clock rules.
Baylor vs SMU odds
- Spread: Baylor +2.5 | SMU -2.5
- Moneyline: Baylor +115 | SMU -135
- Over/Under: Over 65 | Under 65
Baylor vs SMU trend to know
Baylor has covered the spread in eight of its last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs SMU.
How to watch Baylor vs SMU
| Location | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, September 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | The CW Network |
Baylor vs SMU latest injuries
Baylor vs SMU weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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