Arizona won nine games and finished 6-3 in Big 12 play in 2025, clearing its 5.5 win total with room to spare.
Oddsmakers took notice: the Wildcats' 2026 win total climbs to 7.5, tied for the highest number they've faced in this dataset, and a real test of whether last year's breakout was the new normal or a high-water mark.
Here's a look at the recent history of Arizona win totals, along with predictions on whether the Wildcats will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 7.5:
Arizona 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 7.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 7.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 7.5 | 🟡 |
| Leif Thulin | Locked On Wildcats Podcast | OVER 7.5 | 🟡 |
Covers erxp betting predictions
Brad Powers
Quarterback Noah Fifita returns yet again for his fourth year as the starter. However, Arizona did lose four starters in their secondary who all went in the NFL Draft. I don’t see them matching last year’s nine wins.
Rob Paul
While Arizona does return Noah Fifita at QB for another season, the Wildcats lose four of their five starters from a secondary that helped them have the top pass defense in the country last year. Replacing four NFL draft picks in the secondary is a huge ask, especially for a team that plays the No. 10 schedule in SOS (.614).
Though Brent Brennan’s defense returns a few players with all-conference talent (Tre Smith, Jay’Vion Cole, Taye Brown), he’s relying heavily on transfers to make up the difference in the back seven. Meanwhile, the offense only added one major transfer - tight end Cole Rusk (Illinois) - and needs returning players like Tre Spivey and Kendrick Reescano to take major leaps.
Colby Marchio
I am a very big fan of Noah Fifita, and this will be his fourth and final season with the Wildcats. He should have a ton of weapons around him to help him put together the best season of his college career.
The most notable addition to the offense is former Illinois tight end Cole Rusk, which might be the most perfect tight end name ever. In 2025, Arizona did not have the strongest tight end room, but if Rusk can return to form following his knee injury, he has the potential to become Fifita’s favorite target.
The defense will likely take a step back after having one of the best secondaries in the country a season ago, as they lost a majority of that unit to the NFL Draft. They do return four starters, though, and should still have a solid foundation on that side of the ball.
📰 Arizona media win total predictions
Leif Thulin, Locked on Wildcats Podcast
With the best quarterback in the conference in Fifita, Arizona should score enough points to always contend, and they have plenty to replace on defense but were great at creating turnovers last season. I think they eke out 8 wins and beat one of the 3 best teams they play (BYU, Texas Tech, Utah).
Arizona win totals, odds and results (2009-25)
(Arizona historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5 | +105 | -125 | 9 | Over |
| 2024 | 7.5 | -150 | +115 | 4 | Under |
| 2023 | 5 | -130 | +110 | 9 | Over |
| 2022 | 3 | -145 | +120 | 5 | Over |
| 2021 | 2.5 | -125 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| 2019 | 6.5 | +115 | -135 | 4 | Under |
| 2018 | 7.5 | -150 | +130 | 5 | Under |
| 2016 | 6 | +100 | -120 | 3 | Under |
| 2015 | 7.5 | -135 | +115 | 6 | Under |
| 2013 | 7.5 | -160 | +125 | 7 | Under |
| 2011 | 6.5 | +155 | -195 | 4 | Under |
| 2010 | 7.5 | -170 | +140 | 7 | Under |
| 2009 | 6.5 | -140 | +110 | 8 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A heavy Under lean overall: Arizona has gone Under its win total nine times against four Overs across 13 graded seasons, a clear historical tilt toward the Under side of the number.
- Going streaking (in a bad way): Arizona missed its win total in eight of nine graded seasons across that stretch, with win totals during that span ranging from 2.5 up to 7.5.
- A real turnaround: Arizona has now cleared its win total in three of the last four graded seasons (2022, 2023, 2025), a sharp reversal from the decade of mostly Unders that preceded it.
How Arizona win totals are priced
Arizona's nine-win, 6-3 Big 12 season in 2025 pushed the program's 2026 win total up to 7.5, tied for the highest number the Wildcats have faced in this dataset. Sportsbooks still lean Under at that number, with the Under priced at -125 against +105 on the Over, suggesting books expect some regression after last year's breakout rather than a repeat.
The conference total tells a different story. Arizona's Big 12 win total sits at 4.5, with the Over favored at -125 against +105 on the Under, a number that looks very clearable given the Wildcats won six conference games in 2025. That gap, a favored conference Over paired with a favored overall season Under, suggests books see Arizona's non-conference or overall schedule as the tougher hurdle in 2026, not Big 12 play specifically.
7.5 has been Arizona's win total five separate times since 2009, more than any other number in this dataset; the Wildcats went Under all four previous times before this season.
Arizona win total FAQs
Will Arizona make the CFP?
Arizona is priced at +1000 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Arizona's projected win total?
The Wildcats' win total sits at 7.5 for 2026, with the Over at +105 and the Under at -125.
Who is Arizona's starting QB?
Noah Fifita returns as the Wildcats' starting quarterback for a fourth season. He threw for 3,228 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2025.
What's the best bet for Arizona this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER on Arizona's 7.5 win total is the optimal play (though Colby Marchio feels differently).
