Two Sun Belt teams that could really use a win collide on Tuesday, October 14, when the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the South Alabama Jaguars.
The Red Wolves broke a four-game losing streak with a win over Texas State last time out, while South Alabama fell to Troy, its fifth loss in a row.
My Arkansas State vs. South Alabama predictions and college football picks don't expect much scoring from either side.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Arkansas State vs South Alabama prediction
Arkansas State vs South Alabama best bet: Under 59.5 (-105)
I understand the thinking that two of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt colliding could allow for a ton of points — they each give up an identical 31.7 points per game — but the Arkansas State Red Wolves can't hold up their end of the offensive bargain.
Arkansas State has seen the Under cash in four straight, and only once in that stretch were they able to touch the 60-point plateau, that being a 31-30 win over Texas State last time out.
The Red Wolves are scoring 23.3 points per game (11th in Sun Belt) and are next to last in rushing, averaging just 119 yards per game. It makes their pass offense — fifth in the conference — too predictable, even with a Top-5 ranking in the Sun Belt.
It won’t help that the South Alabama Jaguars are third in the conference in pass defense and a Top-60 team in the nation, allowing 169.2 passing yards.
South Alabama has a 4-2-0 Over record through its first six games of the season, but none of the last four games have gone higher than 58 points.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama same-game parlay
Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor has only passed for more than his 250.5-yard line twice this season, but he should remember last year’s performance against South Alabama.
He went 30-for-39 for 345 yards and a TD, only the fourth time he’s hit the 300-yard passing plateau in a game since the start of last year.
Those numbers came in an 18-16 win, so he can pass big while the score stays low.
Bishop Davenport has only topped 200 yards passing once in a game this season, so his 196.5 passing line is a fair number.
It’s a line he’s passed just twice in six games this season. His dual play has been more on the run side of late, running for at least 59 yards in three of the last five, including a season-high 72 yards on 15 carries and a TD.
South Alabama should find success against this poor Red Wolves’ run defense, keeping the ball on the ground more than airing it out.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama SGP
- Under 59.5
- Jaylen Raynor Over 250.5 passing yards
- Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Threading the needle
Chauncey Cobb has alternated between big games and sub-par efforts, and he’s coming off a seven-catch, 39-yard effort against Texas State. This was after a 126-yard game against ULM. It’s been like this all year, so a bigger effort is in store against South Alabama. Meanwhile, Kentrel Bullock leads the Jaguars with five TDs on the season, though he’s coming off a scoreless Saturday against Troy. He has yet to go back-to-back games without a major this season.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama SGP
- Under 59.5
- Jaylen Raynor Over 250.5 passing yards
- Bishop Davenport Under 196.5 passing yards
- Chauncey Cobb Over 63.5 receiving yards
- Kentrel Bullock anytime TD
Arkansas State vs South Alabama odds
- Spread: Arkansas State +6.5 (+100) | South Alabama -6.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Arkansas State +205 | South Alabama -250
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (-115) | Under 59.5 (-105)
Arkansas State vs South Alabama trend to know
The Jaguars have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs South Alabama.
How to watch Arkansas State vs South Alabama
| Location | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date | Tuesday, October 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Arkansas State vs South Alabama latest injuries
Arkansas State vs South Alabama weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
