There are some great Top 25 matchups on tap as we move deeper into conference play, and I’ll be looking at stars at some elite state school programs to reach the end zone in Week 5.
I’m looking at Duce Robinson to score despite the run-heavy Florida State Seminoles offense, while Carnell Tate and Kaytron Allen should continue to find paydirt this weekend.
Let’s take a look at the best touchdown prop bets for this weekend’s slate in my free college football picks for Week 5.
College football anytime touchdown picks for Week 5
Robinson (+185)
Tate (-105)
Allen (-125)
Prop bet #1: Duce Robinson anytime TD
Ever since their opening win over the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Florida State Seminoles haven’t had to work hard to score. Florida State has put up a total of 143 points in its last two wins over the East Texas A&M Lions and the Kent State Golden Flashes.
The Seminoles have done most of their damage on the ground. Seven different players have run the ball in for touchdowns, with a total of 17 scores coming in the running game. That compares to just seven in the passing game, as quarterback Tommy Castellanos hasn’t been asked to do too much with his arm in the early going.
But Castellanos has been highly efficient when he has thrown the ball, completing 71.1% of his passes. And we can expect him to be called on to make more throws in tougher games against ACC competition, starting with Friday night’s matchup with the Virginia Cavaliers.
Duce Robinson has already caught two touchdowns on just eight receptions, and he’s likely to be the primary target as the Seminoles utilize their receivers more often against stronger competition. I like him at a solid number in Friday’s game.
Prop bet #2: Carnell Tate anytime TD
The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes are spoiled for offensive weapons, as 10 different players have already scored at least one touchdown this year. The most consistent scorers have come in the passing game, where Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate have dominated in terms of receptions, yardage, and touchdowns.
The Buckeyes are likely to be tested by the Washington Huskies defense, which has allowed only 18.3 ppg for the year. But while the Huskies are giving up just 2.4 yards per play in the running game, they’ve been more vulnerable in the air — a vulnerability that plays right into Ohio State’s offensive strengths.
Both Smith and Tate have three touchdown receptions already this year. Smith has gotten more usage, catching 20 balls compared to 12 for Tate. Smith was also a key member of the Ohio State offense in 2024, when he scored a total of 16 times.
But this also means that the odds are much shorter on Smith to score. Yet Tate has scored in each game this season, and has been used increasingly after catching only two balls against the Texas Longhorns in Week 1. Let’s bank on Tate continuing to get plenty of targets this week against Washington.
Prop bet #3: Kaytron Allen anytime TD
While senior running back Kaytron Allen isn’t getting as much volume for the Penn State Nittany Lions in 2025 as he has in other seasons, he’s remained as productive as ever. Allen is averaging 8.0 yards per carry and has picked up three touchdowns in Penn State’s first three games.
Allen splits carries with fellow senior Nicholas Singleton, who has actually gotten a few more carries and five touchdowns so far this season. But there’s plenty of touches for both in this offense, and given how productive Allen has been on a per-carry basis, I expect him to maintain and perhaps even increase his usage against more competitive opponents.
That starts Saturday against the Oregon Ducks.
Oregon has shut down opposing passing games, holding quarterbacks to an 85.4 rating — the fourth-best mark of any defense in the nation this year. However, the Ducks have been closer to mediocre against the run, with opponents grinding out a decent 3.3 yards per rush.
Allen has shown the ability to break off big plays, and Oregon has yet to play an offense with anywhere near the talent or level of line play of Penn State. While both Nittany Lion running backs should do work against the Ducks, Allen is the better bet to score.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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