It’s an all-SEC matchup that greets us in the first round of the College Football Playoff, with the Oklahoma Sooners hosting the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Tide entered off a drumming loss to Georgia in the SEC title game that nearly pushed them out of the playoff entirely. As for Oklahoma, the Sooners already beat this Alabama team once this season and enter this game on a four-game winning streak.
Take a look at my early Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for Saturday, December 19, 2025.
Alabama vs Oklahoma predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Alabama vs Oklahoma spread pick: Alabama -1
In all honesty, I don’t feel great about betting either of these teams, and I likely won’t.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the more complete team, but they're headed to an extremely hostile environment and facing a team with a similar defensive archetype to Georgia, who blasted them in the SEC Championship Game.
Not to mention it already lost to this Oklahoma team once this season. That said, I’ll roll with the Bama if forced to make a choice.
If the Tide can survive the early downs against Oklahoma’s defense (a big if), then Alabama can make some plays. This Sooners defense has occasionally bent on later downs this season, and Alabama has been wildly efficient on third and fourth down this year.
For as rough as quarterback Ty Simpson looked in the SEC title game, I do think he's the best quarterback in this matchup, especially in the intermediate or beyond passing game.
We’ll talk about the Oklahoma offense more in a bit, but it’s been a struggle all year for that group. OU has to win a rock fight where its that group is the weakest link on the field, and its big edge (the run defense) is somewhat muted by Alabama’s downfield passing ability.
In a tight, low-scoring game, the team more likely to sustain one or two real scoring drives and convert high-leverage downs is Alabama.
Early Alabama vs Oklahoma total pick: Under 40.5
Just because this is a low number doesn’t mean there’s no value in it. I played the Under on the opening number, seeing nearly a field goal of value.
Again, this Oklahoma defense is nasty. If you look at the unit's analytical profile, it’s tough to find where a weakness resides. The Sooners are second nationally in EPA allowed per play, first against the rush, 98th percentile in havoc created, and opponents generate available yards on just 32.8% of drives (second-best mark in the country).
Alabama’s offense is solid, but its real issue this season has been an inefficient run game. That’s a problem against a Sooner front that lives in favorable downs and distances and forces opponents into long drives.
On the other side, Oklahoma’s offense is simply bad. Especially relative to the rest of the playoff field. It’s a bit of a shame, given how historically elite the defense is, too. They do nothing particularly above average, and the things they do average are strengths of the Tide's defense.
Alabama’s defense isn’t quite as dominant as OU’s, but it’s comfortably Top 30 across most categories and Top 30 in early-down EPA, which should keep the Sooners behind the chains.
The paths to this total going Over almost certainly involve multiple turnovers that give the other side short fields or a few big explosive plays made on special teams. If I lose the total that way, then so be it.
Alabama vs Oklahoma odds
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma spread: Oklahoma +1
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma moneyline: Alabama -115, Oklahoma -105
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Alabama vs Oklahoma
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma matchup
- Date: Friday, December 19, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- City: Norman, OK
- Venue: Memorial Stadium
- TV: ABC & ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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