Dan Hurley and the No. 2 seed UConn Huskies aim to make their regular-season finale loss a thing of the past as they move on to the Big East Tournament, where they’ll face the No. 10 seed Xavier Musketeers on Thursday night.
Action gets underway at 7:00 pm ET on FS1 for the third of this tournament’s four games on tap for today.
See why my Xavier vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks on Thursday, March 12, are fading Richard Pitino’s squad’s defensive abilities.
Xavier vs UConn prediction
Xavier vs UConn best bet
Xavier vs UConn best bet: UConn TT Over 83.5 (-125)
The Xavier Musketeers play little to no defense, and the UConn Huskies are out for blood after failing to wrap up the regular season title due to a disappointing loss to Marquette in the finale.
Dan Hurley lives for March (18-3-1 ATS since 2022-23), and his offense — which averaged 91 ppg against Xavier in the regular season — should thrive against the Musketeers' porous defense (259th in adjusted efficiency since February 1).
Xavier is 14-2 O/U in its last 16, surrendering 85.3 ppg in that span. It’ll get crushed on the offensive glass, and UConn should score at will.
Xavier vs UConn same-game parlay
Tarris Reed Jr. is a dominant force who should expose a soft Xavier interior defense ranking 240th in near-proximity attempt rate and 186th in near-proximity defense (Haslametrics).
The Musketeers are terrible on the boards (286th in rebounding rate) thanks to their finesse-style bigs. The problem could get even worse if they opt for zone defense, as they did for almost the entirety of the First Round game against Marquette.
Reed possesses a 12.7% offensive rebounding rate and has gobbled up 10+ total boards in four of his last five games.
Xavier vs UConn SGP
- UConn TT Over 83.5
- Tarris Reed Jr. Over 15.5 points
- Tarris Reed Jr. Over 10.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Jovan!
Betting against Hurley in March is anathema. Xavier won’t have success at the cup, and Jovan Milicevic (2.6 three-pointers in his last seven games) is happy to let fly from distance.
Xavier vs UConn SGP
- UConn TT Over 83.5
- Tarris Reed Jr. Over 15.5 points
- Tarris Reed Jr. Over 10.5 rebounds
- UConn -15.5
- Jovan Milicevic Over 1.5 made threes
Xavier vs UConn odds
- Spread: Xavier +14 (-110) | UConn -14 (-110)
- Moneyline: Xavier +945 | UConn -1700
- Over/Under: Over 149 (-105) | Under 149 (-115)
Xavier vs UConn betting trend to know
Xavier has cashed the Over in 14 of its last 16 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. UConn.
How to watch Xavier vs UConn
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Thursday, March 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Xavier vs UConn key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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