Xavier vs Providence Picks and Predictions: Musketeers Spoil Friars Home Party

Xavier has lost four of its last five but our college basketball picks like the Musketeers to bounce back against a No. 11-ranked Providence Friars team whose luck is bound to run out. Read more in our Xavier vs. Providence betting preview.

Last Updated: Feb 23, 2022 12:35 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Paul Scruggs Xavier Musketeers college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Xavier Musketeers have lost four of their last five games heading into this massive Big East showdown against the Providence Friars. Xavier will now look to get back on track with a big road win over Providence, which has won nine of its last 10 games. 

Will the Musketeers roll into the Dunkin’ Donuts Center and steal a win? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Xavier vs. Providence to find out. 

Xavier vs Providence odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After opening as a 1-point home favorite, the Friars are now laying anywhere between 1 and 2 points in this game — and Providence also happens to be receiving a significant portion of the bets. The total, which opened at 139, is now down to as low as 136.5 in some places. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Xavier vs Providence predictions

Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Xavier vs Providence game info

Location: Dunkin' Donuts Center, Providence, RI
Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET

Xavier at Providence betting preview


Xavier: Nate Johnson G (Questionable).
Providence: Al Durham G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Xavier is 23-8 against the spread in its last 31 games against teams with winning percentages above 60%. Find more NCAA betting trends for Xavier vs. Providence.

Xavier vs Providence picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Xavier has had three full days to sit on its 11-point loss to the Connecticut Huskies, and the team has now lost four of its last five.

Look for the Musketeers to be really fired up to go out and get back in the win column. Travis Steele is a very good head coach and will have his team ready to go in this meeting with Providence tonight, especially after the Friars beat the Musketeers in Ohio on January 26. 

This game will feature some really solid play at the point guard position, where Xavier’s Paul Scruggs will be looking to outduel Providence’s Jared Bynum.

Scruggs had 16 points the last time these teams played, but he was just 5-13 from the floor and 1-4 from three in that loss. He’s plenty capable of being more efficient than that and he knows he’ll need to have a better game with his backcourt mate Nate Johnson either out or playing through injury. 

Overall, Xavier should be a bit better on the offensive end in this one no matter what. The Musketeers are 47th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency this season, per KenPom, and should be able to top their last performance against the Friars in which they shot just 41.7% from the field and 22.2% from three. 

Providence is also bound to start losing some close games at some point, as they are first in the nation in KenPom’s luck rating. For a team that is 40th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and just 67th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Providence’s 22-3 record seems a little too good to be true. Take the Musketeers with the free basket.

Prediction: Xavier +2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Before these two went Under the total in their meeting in January, the Over had hit in three games in a row between these programs.

The Over is also 4-1 in Providence’s last five games, and it’s 4-2 in Xavier’s last six. Also, both of these teams are inside the Top 50 in offensive efficiency this season.

The Over is actually 8-2 when Providence is coming off a no-cover this season, and those games have an average combined score of 146.7 points per game. The Over also happens to be 15-6 when Xavier is coming off an Under since the start of last season. Back it again tonight. 

Prediction: Over 136.5 (-110)

Best bet

On top of this seeming like a bit of a trap game — Providence is barely favored despite having a much better record and already earning a win over Xavier on the road — there are just quite a few reasons to believe in the Musketeers as a small underdog in this spot.

One thing to point out is that Xavier is 4-2 ATS in games with lines between +3 and -3 this year and 7-3 both SU and ATS when avenging a straight-up loss against an opponent in which they were favored.

It should also be mentioned that home court hasn’t been much of an advantage for Providence lately. The Friars have failed to cover in each of their last five home games, which is somewhat surprising when you factor in the team’s 14-1 SU record at The Dunk.

Pick: Xavier +2 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Xavier vs. Providence picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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