Wisconsin vs Minnesota Picks and Predictions: Minny Gets Badgered at Home

Fresh off its drama-filled 14-point win over Michigan, Wisconsin now heads on the road to take on the reeling Minnesota Golden Gophers, who may be without one of its best scoring options. Find out who has the edge ATS in our NCAAB picks and predictions.

Last Updated: Feb 23, 2022 1:49 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Johnny Davis Wisconsin Badgers college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

After its 14-point win over the Michigan Wolverines was overshadowed by some Juwan Howard-related controversy, No. 13 Wisconsin (21-5, 12-4) goes on the road to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-12, 4-12) in Big Ten action. 

The Badgers won the first matchup 66-60 but failed to cover the 11.5-point number. Tonight, they're on the board as 5-point favorites and have covered in three of their last four games.

Find out which team has the edge ATS in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Minnesota.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Wisconsin hit the board as a 4.5-point road favorite in Minnesota but has been bet up to -5 at most shops. The total opened at 136 and has ticked down to 135 at the time of writing. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota predictions

Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Wisconsin vs Minnesota game info

Location: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

Wisconsin at Minnesota betting preview


Wisconsin: Lorne Bowman II (Questionable).
Minnesota: Payton Willis (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Wisconsin is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games. Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Minnesota.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This game is a tale of two teams trending in very opposite directions. While Wisconsin has established itself as one of the Big Ten's best over the past two months — sitting in second at 12-4 — the Golden Gophers have lost seven of nine and have slipped all the way down to 13th in the conference. 

Wisconsin is coming off a 77-63 win over Michigan as 2.5-point favorites behind 25 points on 11-17 shooting from Johnny Davis. The 6-foot-5 sophomore (20.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg) consistently comes through in crunch time and is leading one of the best Badgers offenses in recent years. 

The Badgers are a squad that is consistent on both ends — ranking 43rd in offense and 33rd in defense (KenPom) — and protects the ball as well as anyone in the country, averaging just 8.5 turnovers per contest (second in the nation).

That's a recipe for a team that travels well and it shows as the Badgers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Having Davis, who's almost always the best player on the floor, certainly doesn't hurt either.

On the flip side, the Golden Gophers have been reeling for well over almost a month, with just three wins since the calendar flipped to 2022 (Rutgers, Penn State, and Northwestern).

While they've played a lot of tough teams on the road, they haven't been able to keep many of them close. Their seven losses since Jan. 27 have come by an average of 13.3 points, with the closest margin being the 66-60 loss to Wisconsin on Jan. 30. 

To make things tougher for the Golden Gophers, they may be without Payton Willis (game-time decision, COVID protocols). The 6-foot-4 guard (15.6 ppg, 4.3 apg) is the team's primary distributor and source of perimeter scoring. If he can't suit up, the offense will be limited, making Wisconsin's lives that much easier on the defensive end.

Minnesota may be at home, but it has consistently been handled by the Big Ten's top teams. I don't expect anything different tonight. 

Prediction: Wisconsin -5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These two teams stayed Under when they matched up on January 30, and while Wisconsin has actually been a stellar Over team this season (17-9), this matchup has me leaning Under once again.

Minnesota has stayed Under the total in four of its last six games, which includes dreadful scoring outputs of 46, 45, and 59. The two games that went Over finished at 136 and 137, right around where the number is tonight.

Wisconsin's defense is significantly better than any of the six they faced during that stretch and Minnesota could very well be without Willis, one of its top offensive contributors.

The Badgers may need close to 80 points to send this game Over but I'm expecting something much closer to the first game's scoreline. Back the Under.

Prediction: Under 135.5 (-110)

Best bet

This line feels a little low. Yes, winning on the road in the Big Ten is hard, but the Badgers will have the best player on the floor and are the much better team on both sides of the ball.

If Willis gets ruled out, this line will continue to trend towards -6 or -7. Lay the points now before that happens.

Pick: Wisconsin -5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Wisconsin vs. Minnesota picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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