Wright State vs Northern Kentucky Horizon League Final Picks and Predictions: Norse Have Eyes Set on Big Dance

Welcome to the Horizon League Final, where the Wright State Raiders (20-13, 15-7) and Northern Kentucky Norse (20-11, 14-6) will clash for a spot in the Big Dance in a week's time. 

These two squads have squared up twice this year with the Norse winning both (73-63, 75-71), but the Raiders are fresh off a 15-point win over top-seeded Cleveland State, have won four straight, and are looking to make their first March Madness tournament since 2018.

Will NKU's stout defense slow down the Raiders and win its fourth Horizon League title in six years? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wright State vs. Northern Kentucky.

Wright State vs Northern Kentucky odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Northern Kentucky opened as a slim 1-point favorite over Wright State and has shown no movement at the time of writing. The total hit the board at 135 and has ticked down to 134.5 as of 10:00 a.m. ET.

Wright State was favored in both regular-season matchups (-6.0 at home, -2.0 on the road) with closing totals of 145.5 and 139.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Wright State vs Northern Kentucky predictions

• Prediction: Northern Kentucky -1 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 134.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Northern Kentucky -1 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Wright State vs Northern Kentucky game info

• Location: Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Tuesday, March 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Wright State at Northern Kentucky betting preview

Injuries

Wright State: No injuries to report.
Northern Kentucky: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Northern Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wright State vs. Northern Kentucky.

Wright State vs Northern Kentucky picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Both teams enter this championship bout with a ton going for them.

Wright State has won four straight by an average of 12.5 points and is coming off a huge 82-67 win over Cleveland State, the tournament's No. 1 seed. The Raiders shot 49% from the field and 50% from deep (9-18) and were able to limit the Vikings to just 39% shooting on the other end.

For Northern Kentucky, it's been all about defense. On its current five-game win streak, the Norse have been putting the clamps down on their Horizon League foes, allowing just 58.6 points per game and no more than 66 to Oakland. They also held Detroit Mercy's Antoine Davis — one of the nation's leading scorers — to just 17 points on 5-17 shooting. 

The Norse are fresh off a 57-43 win over Purdue Fort Wayne, where they held the Mastodons to just 28.8% shooting and 3-20 from beyond the arc, ending their 10-game win streak in the process.

This NKU defense wears on you over the course of the game and has the ability to create turnovers in bunches once that exhaustion sets in (14 forced turnovers per game, 68th in the nation). That's the type of defense that's led the Norse to its two wins over Wright State this year and they'll need a similar effort again tonight. 

They kept the Raiders to just 37.3% and 40.3% shooting in those two matchups and forced 14 and 16 turnovers, leading to 19 and 23 extra points for the Norse.

While the Raiders were able to dominate Cleveland State, they still turned the ball over a horrendous 19 times and allowed 16 offensive rebounds — two areas that we know can be exposed by NKU.

Northern Kentucky's offense — led by Marques Warrick (16.4 points per game) — will look to pound the ball into the paint, a place they outscored Wright State 76-54 across the first two matchups.

On top of that, they also have the perimeter shooting needed to make you pay once the defense collapses (8.4 made threes per game, 72nd in the country).

Northern Kentucky has been in spots like this way more often and has pretty significant advantages across the board that may be too much for Wright State's offense to overcome.

All signs point to NKU being the last team standing when the final buzzer sounds — back them to win and advance to the Big Dance.

Prediction: Northern Kentucky -1 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While Northern Kentucky's defense has been totally shutting teams down, I think tonight's 134.5-point total may be a bit of an overreaction to the Norse's 57-43 semifinal scoreline.

The two regular-season matchups went 1-1 O/U, but with higher totals of 139.5 and 145.5. Those two games averaged 141 points and both would have exceeded tonight's total.

Wright State's offense is red hot and has gone Over the total in five of its last seven games, averaging nearly 77 points per game over that span.

And while the Norse's strength comes on defense, they shot 50.8% and 58% from the floor in the two matchups, putting up totals of 73 and 75 points. 

When you add in the easy baskets that will come from points off turnovers and second-chance points — especially for NKU — you should have just enough to get this contest Over the total.

Prediction: Over 134.5 (-110)

Best bet

I'm rolling with Northern Kentucky as the best bet tonight as this is a really tough matchup for the Raiders.

NKU has the formula needed to at least minimize the Raiders offensively and will be much more comfortable with a ticket to the Big Dance on the line.

When it's all said and done, the Norse will be the one punching that ticket. 

Pick: Northern Kentucky -1 (-110)

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