Wisconsin vs Northwestern Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Badgers Come Back to Earth

It is a surprise that Target Center has any nets left after the Wisconsin Badgers’ hot shooting on Thursday. Wisconsin shot so well from deep, no other takeaway holds up from its rout of Maryland to advance in the Big Ten Tournament bracket.

If thinking the Badgers may duplicate that and climb up the March Madness odds board, then trust them against the Northwestern Wildcats today. But if thinking Wisconsin should come back to reality a bit, then Northwestern as a moderate underdog deserves some attention.

Doubting the Badgers in the conference tournament odds backfired yesterday, but there is just about no chance they duplicate that shooting performance, so let’s doubt them again in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Wisconsin vs. Northwestern on Friday, March 15.

Wisconsin vs Northwestern best odds

Wisconsin vs Northwestern picks and predictions

Maryland never stood a chance. It had the best player on the court and arguably the best two, but the Wisconsin Badgers shot 12 of 15 from beyond the arc in the first half. That 80% clip was more than double the Badgers’ usual 35% in Big Ten play. Not coincidentally, the Badgers led by 21 points at halftime.

There is no logical reason to think Wisconsin will repeat that shooting performance. It absolutely could, and stranger things have happened in Marches past. But there is no logical reason to bet on it happening again.

Certainly not when, up until Thursday, the Badgers had struggled for 11 games, going 3-8 outright and 2-9 against the spread, including five straight-up losses as favorites with three of those as multi-score favorites. In that stretch, Wisconsin’s adjusted offensive efficiency fell to No. 54 from No. 6 before that, per barttorvik.com.

What is a better data set, 11 games making up a third of the season or one afternoon in Target Center?

The most applicable data set when discussing the Northwestern Wildcats are their last nine games. Senior point guard Ty Berry suffered a season-ending meniscus injury seven minutes into a win against Nebraska on Feb. 7, entirely missing the last eight games of the year. At the time, pessimism surrounded any analysis of the Wildcats, a sad way for Boo Buie’s career to end.

But with 6-foot-7 sophomore Nick Martinelli stepping into Berry’s starting spot and Buie handling even more of the offensive workload, Northwestern has improved. Including that win against the Cornhuskers, the Wildcats have posted the No. 23 offense by efficiency in the country in their last nine games. Before that, it ranked No. 40.

More notably, Northwestern’s defensive efficiency has ranked No. 48, compared to No. 90 before the injury.

Ignore Thursday. Wisconsin has been trending the wrong direction for a month and a half. Meanwhile, necessity forced Northwestern to innovate its way to being even better, hence the double bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Getting plus odds on the better team of late is too good of a value play to ignore.

My best bet: Northwestern moneyline (+152 at Caesars)

Wisconsin vs Northwestern same-game parlay

Northwestern moneyline

Over 137

Steven Crowl Over 0.5 made 3s

25% boost available

+800 +1000 at Caesars

While Northwestern’s defense improved more compared to the rest of the country after Berry’s injury, its offensive improvement was bigger on a pure numbers basis, jumping 5.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Wildcats have cashed only three Overs in their last nine games, but their net totals compared to pregame totals has been just -9 in that stretch. Furthermore, betting on today’s Over acknowledges the reality that Wisconsin is likely to come out shooting today. Wouldn’t you?

Of all the Badgers to overperform from range yesterday, none exceeded his usual as much as 7-footer Steven Crowl. He attempted only 42 threes this season, making 18 of them. That is until going 3-of-3 yesterday. Adding Crowl to make a 3-pointer today is a bet on him feeling overconfident and attempting at least two.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wisconsin vs Northwestern spread and Over/Under analysis

Wisconsin’s rout of Maryland provided incentive to jump this spread from opening at -3 late on Thursday, reaching -4 as Friday’s sun rose. It is, frankly, mispriced.

Two months ago, the Badgers were 7-point home favorites against Northwestern. The Kohl Center was worth three of those points, making it the neutral-court equivalent of today’s spread. But basing a spread off two months ago completely overlooks how badly Wisconsin has played in the last six weeks and how well the Wildcats have responded to Berry’s injury.

This total opened at 137 on Thursday night before some books knocked it down to 136 early on Friday. That is quite a leap from the 131.5 pregame total between these two teams in January, but remember how much Northwestern’s offense has improved.

Wisconsin vs Northwestern betting trend to know

The Wildcats went 7-2 against the spread without Berry, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog with two outright wins. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Northwestern.

Wisconsin vs Northwestern game info

Wisconsin vs Northwestern key injuries

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