Wisconsin vs Indiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Two-Way Scoring Expected at Assembly Hall

Wisconsin's defense has been the biggest issue over this recent slump and it's that defense that should allow Indiana's offense to get whatever it wants. As such, our NCAAB betting picks expect points to come from all over the floor — read more below.

Feb 27, 2024 • 15:16 ET • 4 min read
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AJ Storr Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten college basketball
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It’s been a winding road of a season for the Wisconsin Badgers who have fallen from being ranked as high as No. 6 in the country to hoping for a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament. To bolster their resume, the Badgers need to win on the road against an Indiana Hoosiers team that’s been one of the worst in the Big Ten.

The college basketball odds have the Hoosiers as 4.5-point home underdogs despite Wisconsin losing five of its last seven. Regardless of the outcome, count on a lot of points with the scoring diversity and poor defensive play of these two programs.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks for Wisconsin vs. Indiana on Tuesday, February 27.

Wisconsin vs Indiana best odds

Wisconsin vs Indiana picks and predictions

A month ago, it looked like Greg Gard might have had the only team in the Big Ten capable of challenging Purdue, but since Feb. 1, the Wisconsin Badgers have lost to four unranked opponents. Defense has been the biggest problem with the Badgers allowing at least 70 points in six of its last seven games.

With just four games left on the schedule and two of them against No. 13 Illinois and No. 2 Purdue, the Badgers can’t mess around on the road at Assembly Hall. Clearly, defense has been its biggest issue over this skid, and the Indiana Hoosiers, for all its struggles, offer one of the best scoring frontcourt trios in the Big Ten.

Given Wisconsin’s offensive talent and its defensive struggles, and the fact Indiana is dealing with similar issues, this game should be high-scoring enough for the Over to come into play with the game total at 142.5.

The Badgers are putting up 74.3 points per game this season and rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Behind leading scorer AJ Storr, Wisconsin is fourth in the Big Ten in team OBPR, per Evan Miyakawa, and has scored 70+ points in 11 of 16 conference games this season.

While Wisconsin has struggled to win Big Ten games, its offense has continued to stand out with the Badgers hitting a conference-leading 53.1% of its twos in Big Ten play. As a team, Gard’s program has shot better overall against conference opponents with its 3-point percentage jumping up to 35.5%, a 15% improvement from the season as a whole.

Storr has been averaging 17.6 points per game in conference play with his size and downhill explosiveness being complemented by a massive frontcourt combo of Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl and the shooting range of Max Klesmit, Chucky Hepburn, and John Blackwell.

Storr may be the catalyst for the offense, but Klesmit and Hepburn should find plenty of opportunities from behind the arc.

Indiana’s defense ranks 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 277th in 3-point percentage allowed (34.8%). In Big Ten games this season, Mike Woodson’s program is 10th in the conference in points allowed per game (75.3) and has seen the ninth most shots against it (59.1).

The Hoosiers don’t have a guard physical enough to deal with Storr and the perimeter defense can be exposed, its best hope is to lean on its frontcourt to keep up on the offensive end. Indiana may rank just 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season, but it’s averaging 72.9 points per game and sits 42nd in the country in field goal percentage (47.4%).

Led by Malik Reneau and his 16.1 points per game, Indiana has been money from inside the arc this season, hitting 53.7% of its shots. Supporting Reneau in the front court are Kel’el Ware (15.1 ppg) and Mackenzie Mgbako (11.5 ppg). Both are shooting higher than 59% from two while Mgbako offers range, leading the team in 3-point attempts and hitting 34.7% of them in Big Ten play.

Those three should be able to give this Wisconsin defense enough trouble to keep the Over in good shape. The Badgers are allowing 68.7 points per game this season, but that’s jumped up to 70.8 in Big Ten play and during this 2-5 stretch, Wisconsin has allowed 73.8 points.

Big Ten opponents have taken advantage of Wisconsin's poor perimeter defense, hitting 38% from three, and the Badgers haven’t been much better from two, allowing teams to shoot 49.7%. While Indiana is having a down season, it has enough offensive talent to keep the scoring going. 

My best bet: Over 142.5 (-110 at bet365)

Wisconsin vs Indiana same-game parlay

Over 142.5 

AJ Storr Over 16.5 points

Mackenzie Mgbako Over 12.5 points

AJ Storr has been Wisconsin’s biggest bright spot this season with the St. John’s transfer giving the Badgers an explosive weapon in the backcourt. Storr is the highest-usage player on the team, taking 13.8 shots per game and getting to the free throw line 4.9 times. He should be able to give a poor Indiana defense all kinds of issues.

He’s scored at least 17 points in 10 of 27 games this season with seven of those performances coming in Big Ten play. Rather than try and slow Storr down, the Hoosiers will need to keep up with him, and Mackenzie Mgbako offers an interesting matchup.

The 6-foot-8 freshman has been putting up 12.8 points per game in conference play with his 3-point range giving the Hoosiers more scoring diversity on offense. He leads the team in 3-point attempts (4.5) and makes per game (1.6) against Big Ten teams and this is a Badgers perimeter defense that’s had trouble down the stretch.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Wisconsin vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis

For all of the Badgers' problems as of late, Greg Gard’s program has had a far better season than Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers, and as such, most books opened with Wisconsin -3.5 to -4.5. There’s been some slight movement as tip-off approaches, but most books have the Badgers at -4 or -4.5.

Wisconsin has gone just 11-15-1 ATS this season and has failed to cover the spread since a January 26 win over Michigan State. Indiana has a matching 11-15-1 record ATS and is 1-5 over its last six.

The game total opened between 140 and 141.5 with most books trending up to 142.5. The Badgers are 16-11 betting the Over this season, including 11-5 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are 15-12 betting the Over and 5-1 in the last six.

Wisconsin vs Indiana betting trend to know

Indiana has gone Over the total in 19 of its last 33 games (+3.60 units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Indiana.

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Wisconsin vs Indiana game info

Location: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Date: Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock

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