After blowing multiple double-digit leads in a loss to North Carolina, Virginia will be looking to rebound in a big way tonight as it travels to Notre Dame.
My Virginia vs. Notre Dame predictions explain why I expect them to run everything through their big man, Thijs De Ridder.
Find out more in my free college basketball picks for January 27.
Virginia vs Notre Dame prediction
Virginia vs Notre Dame best bet: Thijs De Ridder over 1.5 assists (-110)
Thijs De Ridder functions as a connector when the ball gets funneled into the middle of the floor, and Virginia is comfortable using him as a big-to-big passer when the defense collapses.
That’s a pretty big problem for Notre Dame, who have been vulnerable when seeing these interior actions. That’s where dump-offs, high-low reads, and quick kick-outs show up naturally.
The key note is what has happened when opponents have actually forced Notre Dame to defend these big cutting actions. The volume against them hasn’t been massive, mostly because of matchup context, but the tape and the results both suggest stress points when teams run it with pace and timing. Notre Dame enters allowing 1.02 points per possession on big cuts, which is around the national average on paper, but that number doesn’t fully capture how quickly they have to rotate when the roller is a real threat, and the passer can make the simple read. Virginia puts you in those exact spots over and over, and De Ridder is often the release valve.
That combination is enough to like him over 1.5 assists. These are one-pass, high-percentage reads that show up repeatedly in Virginia’s half-court flow, and the number is small enough that he doesn’t need an outlier performance to clear it. Add in his work on the glass as a bonus source of kick-out opportunities, and I think this line should be closer to 2.5, so I’m happy to play it here.
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Virginia vs Notre Dame same-game parlay
This parlay continues the De Ridder theme, and I’m expecting a monster game. He gets the nudge to go over his points total for many of the reasons outlined above, just in a slightly different role from time to time. Beyond those aspects, we haven’t talked about Notre Dame’s rim defense. That’s been an area of real concern all season, and it’s a problem against De Ridder.
I paired that with Virginia to cover the first-half spread. After a massive blown lead against North Carolina, I like the situational angle of backing the Cavs early in a game where they have plenty of advantages.
Virginia vs Notre Dame SGP
- Thijs De Ridder Over 1.5 assists
- Thijs De Ridder Over 16.5 points
- Virginia -5.5 — 1H
Our beyond the arc SGP: Cavaliers aren't joking around
For today’s longshot, we took the Under on Haralson’s points. 15.5 seemed to be a touch too high.
It plays directly into the conversation of Virginia owning the paint, but there are other aspects, too. Haralson has had an over reliance of mid range scoring, and the Cavs simply don’t allow much of that. In a game that should be played almost exclusively in the halfcourt, this number is too high for a player who has only exceeded it once in the last three games.
Virginia vs Notre Dame SGP
- Thijs De Ridder Over 1.5 assists
- Thijs De Ridder Over 16.5 points
- Virginia -5.5 — 1H
- Jalen Haralson Under 15.5 point
Virginia vs Notre Dame odds
- Spread: Virginia -10 | Notre Dame +10
- Moneyline: Virginia -400 | Notre Dame +483
- Over/Under: Over 139.5 | Under 139.5
Virginia vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games (+18.00 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Notre Dame.
How to watch Virginia vs Notre Dame
| Location | Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, January 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Virginia vs Notre Dame key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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