USC vs Oregon State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Don't Trust the Trojans

It’s been a long, sad road trip for Andy Enfield’s USC Trojans. After dropping two of three to begin a four-game road stand — the longest for this program in 20 years — the Trojans simply wish to stop the bleeding. 

They’ll finish up their travels with a visit to Corvallis to take on the struggling Oregon State Beavers on Saturday night. 

Enflied’s squad is expected to get back in the win column and notch its first conference victory as they’re listed as 8.5-point favorites when checking the college basketball odds. The total resides at 141. 

What’s the best bet for Saturday’s Pac-12 clash? Check out my thoughts on the total to find out and stay tuned for my free college basketball picks for USC vs. Oregon State on Saturday, December 30.

USC vs Oregon State best odds

USC vs Oregon State picks and predictions

For the casual observer, the primary interest in this year’s USC Trojans basketball team resides in Bronny James. The ballyhooed freshman has played in four games following his recovery from a cardiac arrest suffered in the offseason, averaging 5.0 points and 2.8 rebounds, dominating the headlines nonetheless. 

For the more astute observers, Andy Enfield’s squad features arguably the best backcourt duo in the nation in Boogie Ellis (18.7 ppg) and Isaiah Collier (15.7 ppg). Ellis has improved his scoring average in all five of his collegiate seasons whereas Collier is a true freshman who will likely hear his name called very, very early in the NBA Draft. 

The problem is these two simply haven’t received ample support, leading to an ugly 2-5 stretch across their last seven games. The non-conference slate featured plenty of excusable losses (Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Auburn) and a few unforgivable ones (UC Irvine, Long Beach State). 

Pac-12 play began on Thursday with another loss, this time to Oregon by a score of 82-74. Ellis and Collier combined to go just 8-for-24 from the field to drop a winnable game against a shorthanded Ducks team with plenty of injuries up and down the roster.

The good news is that Saturday’s showdown with the Oregon State Beavers will finally mark the end of a four-game road stretch that began back on December 17. 

The Beavers are 8-4 this season but have benefitted from a soft schedule. They’ve lost all four games against teams from a power conference including the Pac-12 opener against UCLA on Thursday. They check in at just 198th overall in KenPom, so this sets up as a get-right spot for the Trojans, who rank 49th.

While this does set up as an opportunity for USC to get back in the win column, I’m not in a hurry to be laying this many points with a struggling team on its fourth straight road game.

I’m also not running to the window to back the Beavers, who don’t exactly do anything well and have an inflated record. Instead, I’ll set my handicapping sight on the 141-point total.

Both teams have played to the Over this season — USC is 9-3 O/U while Oregon State is 8-3 O/U. In my opinion, all that’s done is create an opportunity where the expectation for points has been artificially increased, so I’m inclined to buy the Under. 

Oregon State is dreadful with the ball, checking in at 240th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Since the Beavers don’t do anything well, they choose to sit on the ball and slow down the pace, ranking 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that to be exacerbated here as Wayne Tinkle’s game plan could involve slowing down USC’s star-studded backcourt by limiting possessions.

USC has given up its fair share of points this season (73.8 ppg), but it's also played plenty of good teams in a tough non-conference schedule. The Trojans still field a decent stop unit and rank 63rd in adjusted defense, so they should be able to limit Oregon State’s futile offense. 

On the flip side of things, this slow tempo should drag down the overall possessions and therefore diminish USC’s chances of hanging a huge number on the scoreboard.

The Beavers allowed just 67 ppg a year ago despite finishing with a miserable 11-21 record, and it appears as though they’re headed for a similar defensive finish this season since they’re better defensively than offensively and play at a slow pace. 

My best bet: Under 141 (-110 at bet365)

USC vs Oregon State same-game parlay

Under 141

Oregon State +8.5

+264 at DraftKings

The Beavers aren’t a team I’ll look to back often this year, but this is a spot where my hand feels forced a bit. USC is in a dreadful slump and has fooled me with the talent on the roster, but I’ll need to start seeing the roster come together before believing. 

Ellis and Collier are two undeniable talents — but where’s the rest of the roster? Only Kobe Johnson (11 ppg) is averaging more than 6.5 ppg, and he’s shooting just 38.6% from the floor.

The Beavers have played well enough defensively this season that it’s not unreasonable to think they keep this a closer, low-scoring game at home. They’re limiting opponents to just 40.3% from the field this season and are 8-1 at Gill Coliseum. 

While most of those wins came against nobodies, there’s a solid win over a 9-3 Appalachian State mixed in there to inspire confidence. Tinkle played Enflied close last year, winning 61-58 at home and falling 63-62 on the road. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USC vs Oregon State spread and Over/Under analysis

If you’re looking to burn money supporting basketball teams this season, consider blindly supporting either of these teams. The Beavers are a disgusting 3-7-1 ATS while the Trojans have been slightly better at 5-7 ATS. 

The Trojans are in an ugly run where they've covered just one of their last five games. Funny enough, that matches the Beavers’ ATS record in their last five games as well. 

Something will have to give here between a team that’s vastly underwhelmed against solid competition (USC) and one that’s overperformed against weak opposition (Oregon State).

Generally, I’d be inclined to side with the team facing tougher competition yet still holding a vastly superior analytical profile, but I’m not rushing to the window with this being the fourth of a four-game road stretch. 

While the Trojans have two star guards, the Beavers don’t have a bad one themselves in Jordan Pope (16.6 ppg). Dexter Akanno (12.6 ppg) and Tyler Bilodeau (11.4 ppg) are the two other players averaging double figures.

Going back a bit, the Trojans have won 11 of the last 15 meetings between these two schools. The expectation is for USC to make that 12 wins in the last 16 meetings with a victory Saturday night and that’s reasonable considering the talent edge, but it’s hard to trust a team in this bad of a funk.

USC vs Oregon State betting trend to know

These teams have combined to go 4-8 O/U in the last 12 meetings with one another. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Oregon State.

USC vs Oregon State game info

USC vs Oregon State key injuries

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