Two Top-10 Big Ten teams looking to avoid a losing skid square off tonight as the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans host the No. 24 USC Trojans in East Lansing.
Both teams recently picked up their second loss of the season against quality opponents, as USC was blown out by No. 2 Michigan, and Michigan State lost a close one to No. 13 Nebraska.
I’m backing the Trojans to stay within the number with my USC vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks on Monday, January 5.
USC vs Michigan State prediction
USC vs Michigan State best bet: USC +11 (-110)
First things first, let’s acknowledge that the Michigan State Spartans are a very quality team and that Tom Izzo runs one of the best programs in the country. That out of the way, let’s also recognize that the books have overrated this team recently because they haven’t covered a spread since December 2.
That’s a run of six consecutive games without a cover, including a loss against Nebraska on Friday that marked Sparty’s first loss in a Big Ten conference game in 11 months. It’s natural to expect a bounce-back from a well-coached team here at home, but the USC Trojans are a quality enough team that relying on a bounceback performance is no sure thing.
Eric Musselman’s squad is 12-2 despite facing a relatively difficult schedule. USC ranks 53rd in strength of schedule faced thus far (per KenPom), and you can hardly fault the Trojans for recently losing handily to the buzzsaw that is Michigan.
USC is dinged up on the injury front, losing Rodney Rice (20.3 ppg) for the season while playing without Amarion Dickerson (21.6 minutes per game) and five-star freshman Alijah Arenas. Although Rice’s scoring is difficult to replace, there’s a case to be made that his absence is overvalued a tad, as he ranks fifth in BPR on his team (per Evan Miya) while the four players above him are all healthy.
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USC vs Michigan State same-game parlay
The Trojans have been on a sustained run to the Over, cashing in 21 of their last 34 games. They like to push the pace (42nd in tempo, per KenPom) and will face a MSU offense that's plenty capable of scoring points in return.
Auburn transfer Chad Baker-Mazara averages 2.3 threes per game, and his shooting acumen will be needed sans Rice’s 2.5 triples per contest. No other USC player averages more than 1.3 per game, so Baker-Mazara should see an uptick in volume per necessity.
USC vs Michigan State SGP
- USC +11
- Over 151
- Chad Baker-Mazara Over 2.5 threes
Our beyond the arc SGP: Kohler the Board Machine
Michigan State big man Jaxon Kohler has been a man possessed on the boards, grabbing double-digit rebounds in five consecutive games while averaging 11.8 in that span. USC is a mediocre rebounding team (140th in rebounding percentage), so Kohler stands a good chance of continuing to gobble up boards.
USC vs Michigan State SGP
- USC +11
- Over 151
- Chad Baker-Mazara Over 2.5 threes
- Jaxon Kohler Over 10.5 rebounds
USC vs Michigan State odds
- Spread: USC +11 | Michigan State -11
- Moneyline: USC +500 | Michigan State -700
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
USC vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six games. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Michigan State.
How to watch USC vs Michigan State
| Location | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Monday, January 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
USC vs Michigan State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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