UAB vs Vanderbilt NIT Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Books Gave Too Many Points

Two of the hottest teams in the country will face off tonight when the Vanderbilt Commodores host the UAB Blazers in the quarterfinals of the NIT.

No. 2 seed Vanderbilt has won 12 of its last 14 games and nearly fought its way back into the NCAA Tournament after a slow start. No. 4 seed UAB has won 14 of 16 and reached the finals of the Conference USA Tournament before falling to the Florida Atlantic Owls. 

The Blazers love to run and have been a high-scoring team for most of the season, but both of these programs have played tighter basketball during their postseason runs. We’ll take a look at how this game will be played in our free college basketball picks for UAB vs. Vanderbilt on March 22.

Be sure to also check out our March Madness odds page along with our March Madness picks page before Sweet 16 action begins!

UAB vs Vanderbilt best odds

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UAB vs Vanderbilt picks and predictions

The UAB Blazers ripped through their late-season schedule by scoring at will against most of their league opponents. UAB finished the year averaging 82.2 points per game, ranking ninth in the country. KenPom rates the Blazers as the 43rd most efficient offense in the country, a solid number that combines with a fast pace of play to typically produce high scores.

Senior guard Jordan Walker leads the scoring barrage, averaging 22.6 points per game. Eric Gaines (11.6 ppg) and KJ Buffen (10.8 ppg) round out an offense that has enough weapons to trouble teams that are deeper and more talented than the Blazers. 

Vanderbilt’s numbers don’t jump off the page in the same way, but the Commodores are also effective on the offensive end. While they score just 72 points per game, KenPom rates them 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency — a nod to their tougher SEC schedule. 

The Commodores stray more towards offensive balance than outright firepower. Vanderbilt may have lost senior forward Liam Robbins (15 ppg) to a leg injury earlier this month, but a total of four players are averaging double figures this season. Tyrin Lawrence (13.2 ppg) and Ezra Manjon (10.3 ppg) still give the Commodores two efficient options, with both shooting over 49% from the field this year.

This matchup might seem destined to be a high-scoring affair, but both sides have been playing a more contained brand of basketball over the last few weeks.

UAB has hit the Under in six of its last eight games, including each of its last three. The Blazers haven’t played to a total of 150 points in any of their last five contests, and have only done so once in their last eight games. 

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt found itself in some higher scoring games towards the end of the regular season, but has hit the Under by double-digits in each of its first two NIT games. Both of those games reached totals of less than 135 points, and the Commodores have only played above 150 points in three of their last seven. 

Oddsmakers have set the total for tonight’s game at about 153.5 points, give or take the hook. UAB has only played to an average total of 153.2 this season, and Vanderbilt is averaging a total of 143.7 points in its games. 

Between the season-long averages and the recent trends, there’s absolutely nothing that justifies a total this high on Wednesday’s game. I’m betting the Under in this NIT matchup.

My best bet: Under 153.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

UAB vs Vanderbilt spread analysis

Vanderbilt opened tonight’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. That line has come down a bit, with the consensus spread now sitting at UAB +1.5. 

The Commodores were kind to bettors this season, going 20-16 against the spread, boosting that record during their recent surge. The Blazers finished about average against the number, putting up a 16-17-2 mark ATS on the year.

Vanderbilt received a ton of national attention as it made an improbable run back into NCAA Tournament contention late in the season, but as I talked about in the opening, UAB was nearly as impressive down the stretch.

Advanced rating systems generally see UAB as the superior team in this matchup, albeit only by a couple points. Sagarin ranks UAB 1-point better than the Commodores, while KenPom has the gap closer to three. With Vanderbilt taking home-court advantage, this game is nearly a tossup. 

Trying to find an edge in this game, I have to turn back to both UAB’s recent play and the injury to Vanderbilt star Liam Robbins. Those factors make me think the Blazers have the slight advantage in this matchup. Since they’re also the underdog, we can get a little value on the moneyline here. I’m taking UAB +110, though backing them on the spread is also a fine bet.

UAB vs Vanderbilt Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 152.5 points but has up to 153.5 at most books, with some sites posting it at a flat 153.

Both of these teams have been playing strongly to the Over this season, going 22-13 in UAB games, and 20-15-1 in Vanderbilt’s contests this year. However, both teams have been bucking that trend as of late, with each hitting the Under in their first two NIT games.

Whether you like to follow recent betting trends or you’re more interested in year-long stats, all of the indicators are consistent. Take the Under in this game.

UAB vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in UAB’s last eight games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for UAB vs. Vanderbilt.

UAB vs Vanderbilt game info

UAB vs Vanderbilt key injuries

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