Texas vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Frogs Leap Into Big 12 Final

It's a battle of Texas for a trip to the Big 12 Championship when the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns meet up. Both teams advanced in a similar, easy fashion last night.

For Texas, the win came against Oklahoma State. The Longhorns went on a late first-half run, then never looked back, winning 61-47. The win marked the second straight double-digit win for the Horns, who have been in "surge" mode to end the season.

TCU's journey was a bit different. The Frogs went down early in the game against Kansas State and battled back. Once they took the lead, though, they never looked back and pulled away by double-digits. 

What's the Best Bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for TCU vs. Texas on March 10.

Texas vs TCU best odds

Texas vs TCU picks and predictions

For my money, TCU Is one of the most challenging teams in college basketball to handicap. The Horned Frogs do very little wrong, but the fatal flaw is that it can't knock down the outside shot. Consequently, when it does, it's near unstoppable. Predicting when it can is a difficult task. 

Last night TCU hit on 11 of 25 shots from beyond the arc. It's won all six games this season when making more than eight threes. It may not get there today, but there's a path to improving on what it's done in the previous two matchups against Texas (two games it split), and that's enough for me to see value here. 

TCU is going to get open looks from three for a multitude of reasons. One is because that's how they are scouted. We talked about it yesterday, and it remains true today, TCU is one of the worst spot-up shooting teams in the league; despite this, it’s been one of the best in the Big 12. You can look at that negatively, but it can also be spun to say, "look how much of a ceiling this team has if they make those shots." 

The second reason they'll get shooters with open looks is that Texas defends spot-up shooters poorly. It's improved in this metric, but it's still allowing over a point per possession to spot-up shooters, which is in the bottom half of the conference. Finally, with the shooting of now-healthy Mike Miles, there's a path for the Frogs to get to double-digit threes. If that happens, it's increasingly difficult to see TCU losing.

If it doesn't, there are other angles as well.

The eye test tells me that TCU's ball pressure can cause issues for Texas. The Horned Frogs have spent most of the season in the Top 25 of turnover rate. Just like it did last night, if TCU can force some turnovers, it can get into transition and successfully attack a lousy transition defense. Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter have improved at different rates throughout their ball-handling career. But still, they‘re regularly prone to getting frustrated and making poor decisions. They took care of the ball the last time they met and still lost. What happens when they don't?

There's one last parting shot here too. TCU has been a force creating second-chance points this season — it has a Top 50 offensive rebounding rate, and Mike Miles is another pivotal figure here. The Frogs can attack one of the deficiencies of the Texas team, which has a below-average defensive rebounding rate. Second-chance points are a massive feather in your cap when playing close postseason games. It could make a big difference here today. 

My best bet: TCU moneyline (+115 at DraftKings)

Texas vs TCU spread analysis

We're on TCU to get the win today. I invested heavily in the Frogs to win the Big 12 Tournament at +750, and see no reason to start hedging. These teams are close in talent and have a significant gap in coaching. 

TCU has covered seven of its last 10 neutral-site games. The Underdog has also covered in the previous four of these meetings. So, give me TCU to do it again. Mike Miles' health has added a new dimension to this team that has increased its ceiling in a big way — one that’s not fully accounted for by the books. 

Texas vs TCU Over/Under analysis

I don't have a strong opinion here either way. My projections fall right in line with the total as well. Some lost possessions could be made up for on the offensive backboard. If that's the case, then I lean toward the Over in a game that could have a good amount of late-game fouling due to how close it is. 

There are so many strong Under trends at play when TCU plays. The Under is 4-1 in its last five games overall. The Under is 5-2 in its last 7 games following an ATS win. It's a bit more nuanced than that for Texas, though. Its games have gone Over to 13-4 after a straight-up Longhorns win. However, it's gone Under in four of the last five games overall. 

Texas vs TCU betting trend to know

The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. TCU.

Texas vs TCU game info

Texas vs TCU key injuries

Pages related to this topic