The No. 7 seeded Texas A&M Aggies take on the No. 6 seed Florida Gators in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament bracket this afternoon. These teams are national title longshots with March Madness odds of +4,500 for Florida and a whopping +30,000 for the Aggies but both of them upset much higher-ranked foes in the quarterfinals.
Conference tournament odds have the Gators as slim 3-point favorites with the O/U at 151.5 for this clash at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Florida on Saturday, March 16.
Texas A&M vs Florida best odds
Texas A&M vs Florida picks and predictions
The Texas A&M Aggies upset the Kentucky Wildcats 97-87 on Friday as 5.5-point underdogs. While they were unable to stop the Wildcats' highly efficient offense, they were able to exploit Kentucky's vulnerable defense. The Aggies' dynamic backcourt of Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford led the way with Radford dropping 23 points.
Radford is second on the Aggies in scoring with 15.9 points per game and he's become their most reliable scoring option down the stretch.
In his first 15 games of the season, Radford averaged 13.0 points and 13.0 field goal attempts per game but he has raised those numbers to 19.2 and 15.9 over the last 13 contests. He's gone Over 18.5 points in eight of his last 13 games and torched the Florida Gators when these teams met up in February, going 10-16 from the field for 26 points.
The Gators have struggled in their own end, ranking 77th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also play at a blazing fast pace, ranking 22nd in the country in adjusted tempo, surrendering a whopping 80.8 ppg to SEC foes.
While they knocked out Alabama, they still surrendered 88 points and allowed the Tide to shoot 58.7% from inside the arc. They also forced just eight turnovers and their inability to pressure opposing ball-handlers should give Radford plenty of room to operate.
Expect Radford to thrive once again and bet the Over 18.5 on his points.
My best bet: Tyrece Radford Over 18.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Texas A&M vs Florida same-game parlay
Tyrece Radford Over 18.5 points
Over 151.5
Walter Clayton Jr. Over 2.5 made threes
The Aggies prefer a methodical pace but can't slow opponents down, which has resulted in some high-possession games in the run-and-gun SEC. We saw them play a faster-paced contest last night and they've also been sucked into up-tempo games against Arkansas (twice), Alabama, Tennessee, Memphis, and Kentucky this season. While they were able to slow the pace down in the only meeting between these teams this season, expect a higher-scoring contest this time.
The Aggies have averaged 87.7 points over their last three games while the Gators are fifth in the country with 85.4 ppg on the season. Both sides have been dominant on the offensive glass, with the Aggies leading the country in offensive rebounding rate (41.3%) while the Gators are third (37.3%).
The Aggies do a good job of clogging up the paint but allow a ton of shots from deep, sitting 351st in the country in opponent 3-point rate (44.8%). They also rank just 318th at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQuality Bets, so expect plenty of open looks from downtown for Walter Clayton Jr., who leads the Gators with 83 threes made and has knocked down more than 2.5 treys in 11 of his last 16 games
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas A&M vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Gators as 3.5-point favorites and the Over/Under at 150.5. Both the spread and total have seen small movement with the spread shifting to -3 and the total ticking up to 151.5.
If you thought that poor defensive play from Kentucky and Alabama made them likely to get upset, you were proven right last night when both Top-20 teams lost to these unranked squads. The Aggies torched the Wildcats for 97 points to win as 5.5-point underdogs while the Gators scored 102 points versus the Tide.
The Aggies have been inconsistent this season but they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games. They're hoping to gel at the right time of the year once again since they made it to the SEC tournament finals each of the last two seasons. With Texas A&M returning three starters and four key reserves from last year's squad, that experience has proved invaluable.
The Gators have an up-tempo attack that ranks 16th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They've gone 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS in their last 16 games but their subpar defense makes them tough to trust in March.
Texas A&M vs Florida betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Florida's last six games while going 10-2 in Texas A&M's previous 12 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Florida.
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Texas A&M vs Florida game info
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, March 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Texas A&M vs Florida key injuries
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