Tennessee vs Kentucky SEC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Outgun Vols in SEC Semis

The Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers square off in the SEC Tournament semifinal on Saturday afternoon.

This should be a terrific matchup between a pair of schools that are ranked in the Top 10 of the latest AP Poll. Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest between these championship contenders with college basketball betting lines opening with the Wildcats as slim 2.5-point faves.

Here are our best free Kentucky vs. Tennessee college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, March 12.

Tennessee vs Kentucky odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Wildcats installed as 2-point favorites with the Over/Under at 139. Early money has come in on Kentucky shifting the line to -2.5 and -3 at most books while the total has ticked down to 138.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

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Tennessee vs Kentucky predictions

• Prediction: Kentucky -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 138.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 9:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Tennessee vs Kentucky game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 3 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Tennessee vs Kentucky betting preview

Injuries

Tennessee: Olivier Nkamhoua F (Out).
Kentucky: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Kentucky.

Tennessee vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Kentucky is fresh off a 77-71 win against Vanderbilt last night and has won 11 of its last 13 games, although it covered the spread just five times during that span. One of those two losses came on the road against Tennessee on February 15, when the Wildcats were held to 63 points on 34% shooting. That said, the Wildcats did destroy the Volunteers just one month before that, winning 107-79 in Lexington.  

Since that ugly defensive performance, the Vols have been red hot going 13-2 straight up (9-6 against the spread) and coming off a comfortable 72-59 victory against Mississippi State last night. Tennessee has been dominant defensively, ranking third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They've been less impressive on offense, where they rank just 250th in the nation with a 42.9 FG%.

The Wildcats have been terrific on both ends of the floor, holding opponents to a 41 FG% (including just 29.8% from 3-point range) while shooting a sizzling 48.9% from the floor themselves.

Kentucky has five players averaging double-digits in points, led by SEC player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe, who dominates down low with 17.1 points and 15.3 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-9, 255-pound big man will be a matchup nightmare against a Vols squad that has an underwhelming frontcourt — especially after losing forward Olivier Nkamhoua to a season-ending injury last month. 

Ultimately, I think the offensive gap between these teams is bigger than the slight advantage the Vols boast on defense. I'm taking the deeper and more talented Kentucky squad on a relatively short line. 

Prediction: Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total is a tough one to figure out, because although the Vols have been terrific defensively and limited the Wildcats to 63 points when they previously faced off, they also surrendered a season-high 107 points to Kentucky on January 15. 

While that offensive performance was clearly an outlier, it shows just how unstoppable the Wildcats can be when they're firing on all cylinders.

This is such a well-built offense that features the best passer in the conference in Sahvir Wheeler, a gifted secondary ball-handler in TyTy Washington, and can score inside and outside with Tshiebwe and sharpshooter Kellan Grady (11.8 ppg, 43.7 3PT%). The Wildcats are eighth in the country with 80 ppg, and while they might not score quite that many points today, they should do their part to push this game Over the total. 

Despite some strong defensive play all year, Kentucky has allowed at least 71 points in five of its last seven contests and the Vols have dropped at least 72 points in nine of their previous 11 games. We're expecting a relatively close game with both teams scoring in the 70s, which has us leaning towards the Over 139.

Prediction: Over 138.5 (-110)

Best bet

As strong as the Vols have looked lately, this is still a team with obvious flaws. Guards Kennedy Chandler and Santiago Vescovi are excellent, but they don't have much on the wings or inside, and they've been far too inconsistent when it comes to shooting the ball.

Top to bottom, this Kentucky lineup is simply better and if it puts it all together, should be able to win and cover.

Keep in mind that while the Wildcats have been an unreliable team to back on the spread, that has a lot to do with some big numbers placed in front of them. They've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a fave of fewer than six points while the Vols are just 2-5 ATS in their previous seven contests as underdogs.

Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

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