The Texas A&M Aggies face off against the Arkansas Razorbacks in the SEC Tournament semifinal on Saturday afternoon.
The No. 8 seed Aggies are coming off a massive upset over the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers and will look to continue their Cinderella run and earn a bubble spot in the NCAA Tournament next week.
It won't be easy to pass their next test, with college basketball betting lines opening with the Aggies as 6.5-point underdogs. Here are our best free Texas A&M vs. Arkansas college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, March 12.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with Arkansas favored by 6.5 points with an Over/Under of 139. As of 8 a.m. ET, neither number has moved.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas predictions
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 8 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas A&M vs Arkansas game info
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Texas A&M vs Arkansas betting preview
Injuries
Texas A&M: Marcus Williams G (Out).
Arkansas: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 14-5 in the Aggies' last 19 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Aggies came into this tournament as the No. 8 seed in the conference but they ended up stunning the No. 4 team in the nation yesterday when they defeated Auburn by a final score of 67-62. The Aggies are getting hot at the right time and have now gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six games.
Texas A&M is tough on the defensive end of the floor and while it isn't the best shooting team, it's been getting some big offensive performances lately from its three top players. Guards Quenton Jackson (20.3 points per game in his last seven contests) and Tyrece Radford (at least 19 points in three of his last five games) have sizzled, while forward Henry Coleman III has logged 79 minutes in the first two games of the tourney and is averaging 19 points and 9 rebounds per game in those contests.
The Razorbacks have been red-hot over the last two months, going 15-2 SU and 14-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games to earn a double-bye in the conference tourney. They ended their regular season with a 78-74 loss on the road to Tennessee, where they really missed wing Au'diese Toney who was out with an ankle injury.
Toney ended up getting out of his walking boot yesterday and played a big role in Arkansas' 79-67 win against LSU, where he dropped 22 points and added 10 boards. Guard J.D. Notae, who leads the team with 18.9 points and 3.6 assists per game had 19 points, while big man Jaylin Williams (9.6 rebounds per game) anchored the defense with 11 rebounds and four blocks.
The Razorbacks have depth and balance, and came into yesterday's game 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. But they can also get buckets, ranking 25th in the country with 77.3 points per game.
These teams split their two regular-season matchups, with the Aggies winning 86-81 at home on Jan. 8 and pushing the Razorbacks into overtime on the road two weeks later, falling by a final score of 76-73 but easily covering as 9-point pups.
The Aggies were very competitive against the Razorbacks earlier this year when they weren't at their best and now that they're peaking it's tough to fade them when catching 6.5 points. I'm leaning towards Texas A&M with the points.
Prediction: Texas A&M +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
As stout as the Aggies have been defensively, they are 6-1 O/U in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. While Under cashed last night against Auburn, it was an atrocious shooting performance from the Tigers, who had a 30 FG% and had lead guard K.D. Johnson go 0-14 from the field.
As solid as Texas A&M is defensively, that was an outlier performance and shouldn't be expected against a squad like Arkansas that ranks 29th in the country in adjusted tempo.
The Razorbacks have dropped at least 75 points in five straight games despite playing against some of the top defensive teams in the country in LSU (twice), Tennessee, and Kentucky during that span. They have cashed the Over in all five of those contests, and that looks like the play again today.
Prediction: Over 139 (-110)
Best bet
While we're leaning towards Texas A&M with our side bet, we're more confident in the total bet given how great the Razorbacks have looked lately.
It's a bit surprising to see such a low number when you consider that the first two meetings between these squads saw totals of 145 and 144, with both cashing the Over (albeit with the second contest needing overtime to do so).
With both of these teams getting the job done on offense lately and the Razorbacks playing at a quick tempo, we really like the Over on this generous number.
Pick: Over 139 (-110)
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