St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gaels Hold Value in Pacific Northwest Clash

It’s always must-see television when the two titans of the WCC square off, and that’s the case when the Saint Mary’s Gaels (17-6, 8-0 WCC) face the Gonzaga Bulldogs (16-5, 7-1).

These familiar foes have met in the WCC Championship game 13 times since 2002, and tonight’s matchup will likely go a long way in determining the regular season conference championship.

This matchup has been dominated lately by the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who have won 10 of the last 12 matchups and five straight in Spokane. Will the flip script now that the Zags have seemingly taken a step back this season?

Looking at college basketball odds, the Zags are 4.5-point favorites while the total resides at 138.5. Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga on Saturday, February 3.

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga best odds

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs have been one of the best programs in college basketball for over a decade, so naturally expectations are sky-high entering each campaign. However, the Zags haven’t been up to their same level of dominance, as a sixth loss would tie for the most since the 2015-16 season.

Their rivalry with the Saint Mary’s Gaels is the best on the West Coast, at least for my dollar. I make a point to tune into every matchup between these two storied programs as every chapter is an important event in the world of college basketball.

The Gaels have won just two of the prior 12 matchups with the Bulldogs and have come away winless in five straight trips to Spokane. Is this year’s version ready to get over the hump and even up the rivalry a tad?

It just might be. Randy Bennett’s squad is rolling, having won nine straight games and 14 of their last 15. They’re certainly entering this matchup with a lot of momentum, and a win on Saturday would give them a two-game lead over the Zags in the WCC regular season race.

Few’s squad has been ripe for taking this season, going 0-4 in Quad 1 games. Part of those struggles are due to a thin rotation that sees just seven players average 12 minutes per game. Four of those individuals are impact big men (Graham Ike, Anton Watson, Braden Huff, Ben Gregg), creating a bit of an imbalance with few wings or quality backup guards.

As a result, the Bulldogs don’t shoot very well from downtown (33.4% from 3-point range) and opt to force the ball inside the arc, averaging the second-most 2-point field goals (25.3) per game in the nation.

Bennett’s squad is poised to put up resistance. The Gaels are a nasty defensive bunch, per usual, ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) while surrendering just 58.4 points per game (third nationally).

They do a good job walling off the paint, surrendering the fifth-lowest field-goal percentage at the rim. The Zags have lived in the mid-range this season but Bennett’s squad has defended that area well, limiting opponents to 33.5% on 2-point jumpers.

Mitchell Saxen is as quality of a defensive big man as you’ll find, and there’s enough size around him with the 6-foot-8 Joshua Jefferson and the 7-foot-1 Harry Wessels to bother Gonzaga’s big men.

I haven’t been impressed with this version of Gonzaga — it’s lost to the good teams on its schedule and has looked underwhelming every time it has played a quality opponent.

Saint Mary’s matches up well here and has a star guard in Aidan Mahaney (14.1 ppg) to rely on in crunch time. Augustas Marciulionis has also taken his game to the next level recently and scored 25 points in his most recent game against LMU, giving the Gaels a one-two punch that can make tough buckets when needed most in rock-fight matchups.

Bennett has a balanced roster with quality guard play and terrific interior defense, which is crucial in this matchup against a frontcourt-heavy Gonzaga roster. If Saint Mary’s is ever going to snag a win on the road in this matchup, this seems like a good spot.

I’ll fade the Zags against quality teams and make them prove me wrong before believing otherwise.

My best bet: Saint Mary's +4.5 (-110 at bet365)

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga same-game parlay

Saint Mary's +4.5

Under 139

Augustas Marciulionis Over 11.5 Points

+525 at DraftKings

Saint Mary’s best hope for a victory and a cover involves slowing this game down and valuing possessions. The Gaels rank just 356th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) and have the defensive prowess and size to hopefully slow down the Bulldogs from finding easy buckets down low on the other end.

Marciulionis has been on a heater, scoring 45 points across his last two games. He’s an important figure in Saint Mary’s quest to transform from a  perennial quality team to a potential national contender.

One thing the Gaels have lacked at times over the years is a secondary scoring punch to accompany their usual elite defense, and a Marciulionis breakout could therefore unlock a new level. He’s been a huge part of the offense lately, attempting 33 shots in his last two games, and another quality game from the crafty guard would go a long way to a Saint Mary’s cover.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Gonzaga -2.5 before being bet up to -4.5. The total has also been on the move, opening at 136.5 before jumping to 138.5. Be sure to track any further fluctuations with the latest college basketball line movement.

These teams are 5-5 O/U across the last 10 matchups, so not much stands out about the recent history when handicapping the total.

That being said, I lean toward the under as both teams rebound very well. Saint Mary’s wants to slow things down and limit possessions, and Gonzaga likely won’t be able to find as many quick baskets down low, considering interior defense is a noted strength of this Gaels squad.

Neither team is particularly adept from downtown — Saint Mary’s hits three-pointers at a 32.3% clip while Gonzaga is only slightly more proficient at 33.4%.

When Saint Mary’s has the ball, it looks to find easy buckets near the rim. The Gaels rank seventh nationally in near-proximity attempt rate (Haslametrics), but those looks will be hard to come by against a massive Gonzaga team that holds opponents to the 20th-lowest percentage of shots at the rim (30.5%).

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS when the spread is in single digits. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga.

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga game info

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga key injuries

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