St. John's vs Seton Hall Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Red Storm Ride On

Head coach Rick Pitino is back in the garden for what could be one of the better matchups on the Big East Tournament odds board when the St John's Red Storm meet the Seton Hall Pirates for a Round 2 matchup.

St John's last loss came at the hands of the Pirates when Seton Hall swept it in the regular season. After that loss in mid-February, the Johnnies won four straight and played themselves squarely onto the March Madness odds bubble.

Neither side was favored to win the Big Eat according to Conference Tournament odds, but each played well enough to earn a Round 1 bye to get to here.
 
What's the best bet in this one? Find out in my free college basketball picks for St. John's vs. Seton Hall on March 14.

St. John's vs Seton Hall best odds

St. John's vs Seton Hall picks and predictions

Pitino said it simply a week ago.

"I knew if we didn't get better defensively, it was over," he told the assembled media about his realization on February 18. It was a realization this same Seton Hall team brought about. 

That day, St. John's blew a 19-point lead and its eighth game in ten outings. The post-game result was Pitino publicly criticizing his players, culminating in him saying that his first year coaching the program was "one of the most unenjoyable experiences of his life". 

It's funny how it all comes full circle with this matchup again. Whatever the intended message was for Pitino, that message got delivered. St. John's has stayed strong since and has played like a Top 15 team in basketball, both from the eye test but also from the efficiency numbers.

This team looks as primed as any to go on a run, and it's hard to stand away from that momentum. It's hard to take much away from either matchup this season and truly factor into today's handicap. The first meeting happened in January when both teams were much different. The second saw the Johnnies analytically dominate things only to have a bizarre choking away of the game.

One of the most significant mismatches for either team here is the Red Storm's ability to force turnovers against a Pirates team that struggles against heavy ball pressure. 

The Johnnies enter this game forcing turnovers at the Top 75 clip in college basketball, and Seton Hall loses the ball at one of the highest in the sport. More importantly, however, is what happens to the Pirates when they're pressed. That's when they see their turnover rate climb to almost 20%, and that's a problem against a Pitino-coached team.

It's the staple of who he is, and St John's has been no different this season, with a press rate of 35%. Despite two wins over the Johnnies in the conference, Seton Hall has struggled against teams that press a lot. Half of its losses in conference play have come against teams with a Top 3 press rate.

St John's forcing turnovers directly funnels into what happens on the other side of the ball, as it should lead to a fair amount of transition points. Because of their commitment to hitting the offensive backboard, the Pirates are already a poor transition defense, ranking in the Bottom 19% of college basketball in points per possession allowed.

This maximizes those issues. Jordan Dingle and Nahiem Alleyne have proven highly effective in getting buckets in the open court. They'll have plenty of opportunities for easy transition points today, and when St John's has gotten above its average number of points off turnovers this season, it hasn't lost.

I'll back the Red Storm confidently for a few reasons. They have a a Hall-of-Fame coach going head-to-head with one who is still fairly inexperienced in these situations in Shaheen Holloway. But also, it's not reasonable to expect a team with the statistical disadvantage in the turnover department to win three straight in the same season over the same opponent. It was lucky to win a second over St John's this year. That luck may flip today.

My best bet: St. John's -4 (-110 at DraftKings)

St. John's vs Seton Hall same-game parlay

St. John's -4.5

Chris Ledlum 10+ points

+220 at bet365

I'm pairing my best bet with Chris Ledlum to score 10+ points. He's playing his best basketball at the right time of the season and has scored 10+ points in three straight games.

If it's not in transition, Ledlum should also be able to have some decent success in the halfcourt. A significant weakness of this Seton Hall defense is defending cutters, and Ledlum is the best cutter on the St John's team.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. John's vs Seton Hall spread and Over/Under analysis

One of these teams has improved in nearly every quantifiable metric over these last two weeks, while the other has trended downwards. It's an excellent spot to back a Hall-of-Fame coach in Rick Pitino, but it's worth reiterating. In his previous stint at Iona, Pitino posted a 6-1 ATS record in conference tournaments in favorites. He had a perfect record in first-round games. It's tough to beat Pitino in these spots and even harder when you have a clear tactical disadvantage. 

I lean towards the Under here. These are two defensive-minded teams and two defensive-minded coaches. In addition, if both teams are forced to execute regularly in the halfcourt, then we can expect to have some possessions that go pretty deep into the shot clock. 

The total opened at 141.5 and has seen some Over action since then up to 143.5. My projections say that's too high, as I have this game at 139.5. Back-to-back matchups between these two teams have gone Under, and before its last two games against the two bottom dwellers in the conference, the Johnnies had been on an Under run of four straight games. 

St. John's vs Seton Hall betting trend to know

St. John's has covered the first half spread in 21 of its last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. Seton Hall.

St. John's vs Seton Hall game info

St. John's vs Seton Hall key injuries

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