After a disrupted 2019-2020 season, college basketball changed and because of player transfers and extended eligibility rules betting on NCAA basketball has lost a lot of continuity.
With that in mind, we look at teams to watch in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) for the 2021-22 season.
The SEC is possibly the biggest surprise for early-season performance. Six teams occupy the AP top 25 poll and eight rank inside the top 40 in KenPom efficiency rankings. Although they may lack an undeniable top-end national title contender at first glance, the SEC is littered with talent and promise as we head into conference play.
Editor’s note: Preseason analysis has been preserved and immediately follows this early-season update.
Pre-conference play update
Alabama Crimson Tide
Last year’s conference champions No. 6 Alabama (8-2) have largely been who we expect them to be. They push the pace (18th in possessions per game) and clean the glass (36th in total rebounding) to relentlessly push three-point volume (22nd), even though they’re nothing spectacular efficiency-wise (146th in three-point percentage).
They’ll also lose games from time to time due to their below-average free throw percentage (253rd) as they did in their loss against Iona (13/25) or due to their lack of defensive discipline (300th in free throw attempts allowed) like they did in their loss at Memphis (25 free throw attempts allowed).
There is hope that Alabama can clean up the latter. The main culprits are freshman center Charles Bediako (3.3 fouls per game), Furman transfer Noah Gurley (2.9), sophomore Darius Miles (2.9), and redshirt sophomore Juwan Gary (2.5). The four are all understandably adjusting — Bediako being a true freshman, Miles, and Gary seeing massive increases in playing time, and Gurley coming from a mid-major. These woes are fixable, so Alabama is still a good bet.
Tennessee Volunteers
As good as Alabama is, No. 18 Tennessee (8-2) is arguably more promising. The Volunteers rank 24th in three-point attempts with average efficiency (167th in three-point percentage), and they do many things well outside of that. They move the ball fluidly (sixth in assists) and with care (30th in turnovers) and have a nose for the ball on defense, ranking sixth in steals, 20th in blocks, 16th in points allowed, and first in KenPom defensive efficiency ratings.
Tennessee profiles extremely well when looking at the historical statistical profile of tournament winners. Structurally, however, the one element that may be missing is production in the frontcourt. Five-star freshman Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has the tools and potential to help on that front, and he has certainly shown flashes thus far, but he is still rather raw. What he lacks so far, fellow five-star freshman Kennedy Chandler (14.6 PPG, 5.4 APG, 1.9 SPG) has provided in the backcourt and is already looking the part of a star.
LSU Tigers
The No. 19 LSU Tigers (9-0) are enjoying much of their success due to their elite defense, ranking first in points allowed and field-goal percentage allowed, second in KenPom defensive efficiency, second in steals, and 25th in blocks. The primary concern when projecting forward is their strength of schedule.
According to ESPN’s BPI, LSU has faced the 259th most challenging schedule in the nation to date. Alabama has faced the 13th toughest, and Tennessee has faced the 94th toughest. That will change as they open conference play against No. 13 Auburn, No. 21 Kentucky, No. 18 Tennessee, Florida, No. 24 Arkansas, and No. 6 Alabama.
That stretch will serve as a great measuring stick for the Tigers, and they’ll have plenty of time to get better before playing Kentucky, Arkansas, and Alabama again in three of the last four games to close the season.
Recommended SEC bets:
Use our NCAA basketball odds comparison tool to find the best odds on your SEC wagers.
Alabama to win tournament (+3,300)
Tennessee to win tournament (+4,000)
Tennessee to win SEC reg season (+510)
SEC teams to watch
Note: The following is the original analysis published on Nov. 9, 2021
Alabama Crimson Tide
Last year’s conference champion Alabama is the market favorite to win it this year, possibly for a good reason. Coach Nate Oates has been a revelation for the program, leading them to a 16-2 (.889) conference record - their best mark in 35 years. Oates has emphasized three-point volume since taking over, ranking first and fourth in his first two seasons following four years under Avery Johnson, during which Alabama regularly ranked below the nation’s average.
Leading scorers Jaden Shackelford (14.0 PPG) and Jahvon Quinerly (12.9 PPG) return, but they lose much of the supporting cast behind them. In their place, freshman point guard Jaden Bradley becomes just the seventh five-star recruit in program history, and four-star big man Charles Bediako also joins the mix.
Alabama will also get Furman transfer Noah Gurley (15.4 PPG), who finished second in scoring for Furman the last two seasons. Expectations are high for Alabama (+2,800 odds to win the tournament), but a sleeping giant in the SEC could turn the tides.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas finished second in the conference, made an Elite Eight appearance, and added a slew of notable transfers: South Dakota’s Stanley Umude (21.6 PPG), Pittsburgh’s Au'Diese Toney (14.4 PPG), and Miami’s Chris Lykes (15.5 PPG).
However, they lost their top two scorers in Moses Moody (16.8 PPG) and Justin Smith (13.6 PPG). Although the Razorbacks have a formidable crew, they are not the sleeping giant in the SEC.
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee has a real chance to make some serious noise both in the conference and in the tournament and are the true sleeping giants of the SEC. Yes, they lost leading scorers Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson to the NBA. Still, they return a large portion of their respectable depth from last year (including sixth-year senior John Fulkerson) while adding sophomore transfer Justin Powell (11.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG).
Most importantly, they boast one of the best-recruiting classes in the nation. Five-star Kennedy Chandler is the highest-ranked point guard of the class and is a surefire future NBA talent. Five-star power forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield joins him as a competent shooter and passer for his size (6’10”), and top 40 recruit Jonas Aidoo brings even more size to the table (6’11”, 230 lbs).
Tennessee is a team that can do some damage. But when you look at the AP poll (not that the AP poll truly matters), you won’t find Tennessee, Arkansas, or even Alabama as the top-ranked SEC team.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky begins the year as the top-ranked SEC team at #10, and their prices in the market are equally respectable (+2,400 to win the tournament).
Despite what you might remember from their laughably bad 2021 campaign, Kentucky overhauled their roster ahead of the 2022 season to feature veteran scorers like Davidson’s Kellan Grady (17.1 PPG) and Georgia’s Sahvir Wheeler (14.0 PPG, 7.4 APG).
On top of adding additional depth through transfers, John Calipari flexed his typical recruiting muscles to land five-star Ty Ty Washington.
LSU Tigers, Florida Gators, and Auburn Tigers
Senior big men Darius Days and Colin Castleton return to LSU and Florida (respectively), complemented by transfers expected to contribute early and often to highlight the mid-tier conference contenders.
Auburn joins them in that tier with the highest-rated 2022 NBA prospect in Jabari Smith, currently expected to go top five in next year’s draft.
Recommended SEC Wagers
Alabama to win tournament +2,800
Tennessee to win tournament +7,000
Alabama to win SEC reg season +500
Tennessee to win SEC reg season +600
Use our NCAA basketball odds comparison tool to find the best odds on your SEC wagers.
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