After a suspended season, extended eligibility rules and player transfers changed college basketball’s betting landscape. Bettors have altered strategies due to disrupted continuity for many 2021-22 college basketball programs.
We look at the Big East conference's key teams with that in mind.
Editor’s note: Preseason analysis has been preserved and immediately follows this early-season update.
Pre-conference play update
Villanova Wildcats
No. 9 Villanova (7-3) may currently have one of the worst records in the Big East, but it’s for a good reason. Of all Power 6 teams, they’ve faced the toughest schedule according to ESPN’s BPI strength of schedule metric.
Their three losses include:
- A single-digit road loss to UCLA
- A single-digit loss to Purdue
- An admittedly ugly road loss to Baylor
To the Wildcats’ credit, these three teams have peaked at No. 1, No. 1, and No. 2 in the AP poll, respectively, but it’s not all just losses as they managed to pick up a convincing 18-point win over Tennessee, a team still ranked inside the top ten in KenPom efficiency ratings.
Much of Villanova’s success thus far has come from team-level discipline and sublime guard play. In regards to the former, Villanova ranks extremely favorably in turnovers surrendered (sixth), free throw attempts allowed (33rd), and personal fouls committed (66th).
Regarding the guard play, Collin Gillespie averages 16.2 PPG while shooting 43.4% from three, and Justin Moore adds 15.6 PPG while shooting 38% from deep. The two are massively contributing to the team’s 37.7% three-point percentage, which ranks 43rd in the nation.
Where Villanova is struggling, however, is with size and everything that comes with it. They rank 335th in field goals made inside the arc and are average at best with defensive boards (181st). These shortcomings were very apparent in their three losses in which they had a 38% two-point field goal percentage, allowed a 54% two-point field goal percentage, and finished with a -33 rebounding margin. There is no easy fix for this as the Wildcats just simply don’t have the size in their rotation, and it severely limits their ceiling as a tournament contender. For this reason, even the +2,500 odds commonly available are not a bet we would recommend.
Xavier Musketeers
In our Big East preseason preview, we closed with the following remarks about No. 22 Xavier (10-1): “The early goings of their 2022 season may be messy, but after some growing pains, this team has all the tools to put some serious talent on display”. Much of that has rung true, as the “messy” included a nail-biting win against Niagara and a double-digit loss to Iowa State. However, they display some serious talent in underdog wins against Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State.
Iowa transfer Jack Nunge (team-leading 13.0 PPG) has gelled well with returning vets Paul Scruggs (11.3 PPG) and Nate Johnson (12.9 PPG), and Colby Jones (12.5 PPG) is taking a huge step up in his sophomore campaign. Jones owns shooting splits of 58%/74%/38% compared to last year’s 46%/75%/33% and is doing this all while seeing considerable increases in his usage while keeping his playing time relatively steady (29.2 MPG this year vs. 27.8 last year).
Although Xavier’s odds may not be as juicy as our recommended preseason bets were (+650 to win the conference, +14,000 to win the tournament), there is still some meat left on the bone for those that enjoy longshots.
Seton Hall Pirates
If there’s one Big East team deserving of their flowers early on, it’s No. 16 Seton Hall (9-1). Their lone loss came at the hands of Ohio State, who have beaten Duke and Wisconsin. Outside of that, the Pirates have picked a massive road win against No. 4 Michigan and a home win against No. 7 Texas, and their remaining wins have all been by double digits outside of one game.
Senior guard Jared Rhoden has been leading the way, setting career highs in points, rebounds, steals, blocks, free throw attempts, and percentage. But it’s not just Rhoden, as the entire team is playing quality basketball: the Pirates rank favorably in scoring (43rd), rebounding (40th), blocks (28th), and getting to the line (16th). While many are watching Villanova, Seton Hall deserves to be considered a live contender to win the Big East.
Recommended bet:
Xavier to win Big East regular season (+900)
Use our NCAA basketball odds comparison tool to find the best odds on your Big East wagers.
Big East teams to watch
Note: The following is the original analysis published on Nov. 9, 2021
Villanova Wildcats
For nearly a decade, the Big East has been Villanova’s conference to lose. The Wildcats have finished with the best record in seven of the last eight seasons and won the conference tournament four times.
Head coach Jay Wright lost Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG) to the NBA, but the rest of the roster is largely intact and features a starting rotation with three redshirt seniors. Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Jermaine Samuels (12.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG) are two of the three and were part of the 2018 Villanova team that won the tournament and raised the banner. When the two announced that they would use the extra year of eligibility, they put Villanova on a path to realistically repeat that feat in 2022.
Gillespie returns from a torn MCL, but Villanova was able to win the Big East and make an impressive run in the tournament despite his absence last year. That largely came in part due to Jermaine Samuels’ elevated play in the five games following Gillespie’s injury, during which Samuels averaged 16.6 PPG and 7.0 RPG. If Samuels can sustain that high level of play this year, Robinson-Earl’s absence will be a little easier to stomach.
Caleb Daniels (9.6 PPG) is the other redshirt senior and serves as a capable player who can score off the pick-and-roll while also providing a legitimate perimeter presence (38.6 3P%). Justin Moore (12.9 PPG) plays a similar role, but many of Villanova’s championship aspirations will hinge on him taking his game to the next level — including a return to form behind the three-point line.
Junior guard Bryan Antoine also represents upside potential as he showed flashes down the stretch in Gillespie’s absence. In the tournament’s first two rounds, Antoine played 41 minutes and scored 14 points, higher than his season totals before Gillespie’s injury. If Moore and Antoine can both make a leap, the Wildcats will be surefire favorites come spring.
Connecticut (UConn) Huskies
The Huskies have an eerily similar story to Villanova’s heading into this season. They lose an NBA-level talent (James Bouknight) but will rely on redshirt senior starters (RJ Cole and Isaiah Whaley) to elevate a roster full of returning players. They'll need the complementary players (Adam Sanogo and Andre Jackson) of years past to take their game to the next level to have meaningful tournament aspirations.
Much will be made about replacing Bouknight’s 18.7 points per game; the answer is likely on the glass and the opposite end of the court. Returning big men Whaley (8.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Sanogo (7.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) were significant contributors to the Huskies’ finishes in offensive rebounds (fifth) and blocks (fifth). Akok Akok (6’9”, 215 lbs) continues his journey returning from an Achilles tear and figures to play a more prominent role this year. Altogether, the trio will likely improve on last year’s respectable 44th-ranked finish in field goal percentage allowed inside the perimeter.
UConn also excelled at limiting perimeter looks, finishing 22nd in the nation in three-point attempts allowed. Returning senior Tyrese Martin (10.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) set that foundation as a versatile defender, and returning sophomore Andre Jackson could start alongside him after proving himself as a true lockdown defender in Dan Hurley’s defensive scheme. Last year’s No. 2 man RJ Cole (12.2 PPG, 4.3 APG) rounds out the starting backcourt, and while he isn’t a stout defender like Martin and Jackson, he provides shot creation abilities lacking elsewhere.
Xavier Musketeers
If you’re having a hard time remembering how Xavier did in last year’s tournament, it’s because they didn’t make it. That is certainly not the norm, given that the Musketeers almost always make the tournament; Xavier has 26 appearances in the 33 seasons from 1986-2018. You can attribute much of Xavier’s troubles last year to COVID; from January 11 through February 12, they played just one game.
They were 10-2 before that COVID outbreak, with one of the losses being a five-point road loss to 13th-ranked Creighton. Right before that one-game month-long stretch, they had a nine-game stretch from mid-December to mid-January, in which four games were postponed or canceled. Once play resumed, Xavier was too out of sync to finish out the season, and they finished the last month 2-6 with all but one of those losses being by single digits.
Given the nature of their 2021 season, Paul Scruggs (14.0 PPG, 5.7 APG), Nate Johnson (11.4 PPG), and Ben Staley (6.0 PPG) all had no hesitation returning as redshirt seniors. Joining them is junior Zach Freemantle (16.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG), who creates one of the nation’s best inside-out duos with Scruggs. Redshirt senior Jack Nunge (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) comes over from Iowa and will likely start alongside Freemantle in the frontcourt, while Jerome Hunter (6.3 PPG) comes over from Indiana to provide some depth there.
But that isn’t to say that Xavier is lacking youth. Colby Jones is coming off a freshman campaign in which he started 11 of the 15 games he played while averaging 7.7 PPG and demonstrating defensive acumen. Fellow sophomore Dwon Odom (6.6 PPG) was also a reliable defender and will make a case for playing time.
The Musketeers have many moving parts, and coach Travis Steele doesn’t have much of a foundation to build off of after last year’s campaign. The early goings of their 2022 season may be messy, but after some growing pains, this team has all the tools to put some serious talent on display. If there is one extreme tournament long shot you back with some lunch money heading into the season, it should be Xavier.
Recommended Big East bets:
Xavier to win Big East regular season (+650)
Xavier to win the tournament (+14,000 at Pinnacle)
Use our NCAA basketball odds comparison tool to find the best odds on your Big East wagers.
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Seminoles Rebuild Quickly in Competitive ACC
UCLA Still Dominant in Pac-12, But Don’t Sleep On Oregon
Alabama Favored to Top SEC, But a Challenger is Waiting
