The second contest of tonight’s Continental Tire Main Event Invitational pits the 2-1 Saint Mary’s Gaels against the 2-1 San Diego State Aztecs.
Both schools were ranked as Top 25 squads during the preseason, and the college basketball odds seem to suggest a tight, low-scoring battle when the two California-based programs square off tonight in Las Vegas.
Join me as I dish out my free college basketball picks and predictions for Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego State on November 17.
Saint Mary's vs San Diego State best odds
Saint Mary's vs San Diego State picks and predictions
With Saint Mary’s and San Diego State tipping off this evening, we should expect to see a good matchup to close our Friday night college hoops viewing.
The Gaels play a style of tempo that is as slow as any other team in college basketball, and this group doesn’t do anything quickly on the offensive end of the floor. They shoot late in the clock with exceptional ball movement, and they either opt for a backdoor cut to the cup or settle for an Aidan Mahaney triple.
However, Saint Mary’s is shooting just 27% from downtown thus far, which is probably why it suffered a 61-57 home loss to Weber State. The Gaels shot 18.5 % from downtown, 40% from the field, and committed an abnormal 15 turnovers in that loss.
San Diego State may not have the size, but the Aztecs are an experienced team that play at a much faster tempo than Saint Mary’s. They get shots up quickly and score most of their points inside the arc at a 52% clip while also knocking down 31% of their attempts from beyond the arc.
What distinguishes San Diego from Saint Mary’s is the presence of a finisher, and the Aztecs boast an exceptional one in senior forward Jaedon LeDee.
LeDee makes an impact on both ends of the floor. He can go strong to the cup, make the occasional triple, and has a nice touch around the rim. The Gaels have the size to slow him down, but they foul too darn much. When they do, they expose an inexperienced bench that San Diego State will take advantage of.
When you take out Mahaney, the Gaels aren’t a good shooting team and their margin for error is slim. The Aztecs are a better basketball team on both ends of the floor, and they will win this game outright.
My best bet: San Diego State moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
Saint Mary's vs San Diego State same-game parlay
San Diego State moneyline
Under 130.5
Teams with closers generally seem to win these types of closely contested games. LeDee is one of the best scorers in the country and should show out under the Vegas lights tonight. He also has more help than Mahaney, and SDSU is also the better defensive team in this one.
The Under is also good to play here. The Gaels have been ice cold from everywhere, and that won’t likely change on the neutral T-Mobile Arena floor. Outside of Mahaney, the offense has been a mess and it’s hard to see that changing tonight.
Finally, Saint Mary’s has always been a better-than-average defensive team, and its stop unit will be challenging Aztec shooters all night long. That will surely produce some additional bricks from a team knocking down shots at just a 31% rate from downtown.
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Saint Mary's vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis
San Diego State opened as a +104 underdog at FanDuel. We lost a little value, but we will take anything if we get better than even money for SDSU to win.
FanDuel also offers SDSU +1.5, while most sportsbooks are listing SDSU at +1.0. Since I believe the Aztecs will win this contest straight-up, why pay the juice when I can get even odds on the moneyline?
The total for this game is also why we line shop. FanDuel opened a total of Over 129.5 (-115), which has shifted to 130.5 (-115). -115 on a college basketball total is too much juice to pay when there are better prices and better numbers elsewhere.
I decided to bet the Under 132 (-110) at SuperBook, which is a good number at a decent price. I'm taking a chance on the Gaels' shooting woes continuing tonight against a decent SDSU defense.
Saint Mary's vs San Diego State betting trend to know
San Diego State has cashed the moneyline in 30 of its last 37 games (+22.20 Units / 13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. San Diego State.
Saint Mary's vs San Diego State game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, November 17, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Saint Mary's vs San Diego State key injuries
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