Purdue vs Maryland Odds, Picks and Predictions: Boilermakers Get Right Against Terps

The No. 3 ranked Purdue Boilermakers head to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins in Big Ten action on Thursday night.

The Boilermakers have dropped two of their last three and will look to get back on track against a Terps team sitting just outside the AP Top 25. It won't be easy though with Purdue barely beating them at home last month, and college basketball betting lines opened with the Boilermkaers as slim 1.5-point road favorites for the rematch.

Here are my best free Purdue vs. Maryland college basketball picks and predictions for February 16.

Purdue vs Maryland best odds

Purdue vs Maryland picks and predictions

Neither of these teams shoots well from the perimeter and they both defend well with similar defensive metrics. Although the Terps have home-court advantage and kept things close in West Lafayette less than a month ago, there are a few reasons I like Purdue here.

The Boilermakers are in a bounce-back spot after falling to an underrated Northwestern team on Sunday and they have come away with victories on the road in tough conference venues after edging Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. 

They also have easily the best player on the floor in Zach Edey who is a massive -2,500 favorite to win the Wooden Award and leads the conference in points (22.2) and rebounds (13.0) per game while ranking second in blocks (2.3). The biggest players in Maryland's rotation are 6-foot-9 Julian Reese and 6-foot-8 Donta Scott, so they don't have the size to slow down the 7-foot-4 Edey.

The Boilermakers do an excellent job of defending without fouling and get to the charity stripe at a high rate where they knock down 75.6% of their free throws. They also dominate the glass with the highest rebound rate in the country.

With their ability to get extra chances on the boards and the advantage they usually have in free throws attempted, I'll back them on the moneyline in what should be a close contest.

My best bet: Purdue moneyline (-115 at bet365)

Purdue vs Maryland spread analysis

The Boilermakers are coming off a 64-58 road loss against Northwestern where they shot just 36% from the floor. They have now dropped two of their last three games but remain atop the Big Ten standings with a 12-3 record.

Maryland is tied for fourth place in the conference with an 8-6 mark and has won four of its last five games. The Terps have been terrific at home, going 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS with an average scoring margin of +12.4 ppg. 

When these teams met up in West Lafayette on Jan. 22 the Boilermakers had a 14-point lead at half, but the Terps fought back and made it a 1-point game with just five seconds remaining. 

Edey came up big in the first contest — going 10-for-17 from the field — but the rest of the team shot just 29% from the floor. That's been a theme for the Boilermakers all season with Edey a consistent force down but his supporting cast not always doing their part.

Freshmen guards Fletcher Loyer (12.2 ppg) and Braden Smith (9.9 ppg and a team-high 4.4 apg) are the only other players on Purdue averaging more than 7.0 ppg. 

The Boilermakers are still sixth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom while ranking 21st on the defensive end of the floor.

The Terps aren't far behind in adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking 30th, but they've been less effective with the ball and rank 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Terps have four players averaging double digits in points with Jahmir Young leading the school with 16.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, and 1.3 spg. 

Purdue vs Maryland Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams play at a sluggish pace, with the Terps 281st in the country in adjusted tempo and the Boilermakers 320th.

They also shoot poorly from the perimeter with Purdue 218th in the country in 3-point percentage (33.6%) and Maryland ranking near the bottom of the country with a 30.4 3PT%.

Truth is that the Terps haven't been shooting the ball well from anywhere on the floor and have a 44.9 FG% with that number dropping to 42.7% in conference play. Their ability to attack the rim will be severely hindered by the shot-blocking presence of Edey and a Boilermakers team that holds foes to 61.7 ppg on 41.1% shooting. 

That said, the Terps are also tough on the defensive end of the floor and limit opponents to 62.8 ppg on 41.7 FG%. They won't be able to stop Edey in the paint but they do have the chops to close down outside shooters and pressure Purdue's young backcourt. 

These conference rivals combined for just 113 points when they clashed last month, and the Under has gone 7-1 in the last eight meetings. 

Purdue vs Maryland betting trend to know

The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these conference foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Maryland.

Purdue vs Maryland game info

Purdue vs Maryland key injuries

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