A pair of floundering teams look to turn things around on Wednesday in Chapel Hill where the North Carolina Tar Heels host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
UNC is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games, but my Notre Dame vs. North Carolina predictions expect it to cover a big number tonight.
Read on to find out why in my best college basketball picks for this January 21 clash.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction
Notre Dame vs North Carolina best bet: North Carolina -11.5 (-115)
Both teams are struggling: the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are on a four-game skid, and the North Carolina Tar Heels are coming off back-to-back upset losses.
That said, those defeats came in late games on the West Coast at Stanford and Cal, which made for a brutal travel spot. With the Tar Heels back in Chapel Hill — where they've gone 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS — expect them to win with a margin.
After all, North Carolina's biggest weakness has been its perimeter defense, but ND has struggled on offense since losing leading scorer Markus Burton to a broken ankle.
The Irish are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six, which includes three defeats by at least 12 points and a home loss to lowly Purdue Fort Wayne. Their only win during that span came in a game where they scored just 47 points on 32% shooting.
Notre Dame just doesn't have the athletes to hang with the Tar Heels, who push the pace and are 33rd in the country in adjusted offense.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Notre Dame vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Over the last month, the Irish rank outside the Top 300 in eFG% (47.4%), 3PT% (30.3%), and turnover rate. That, combined with their sluggish tempo, has me leaning towards the Under on the total.
Braeden Shrewsberry was expected to step up after the injury to Burton, but he's faltered with defenses focused on him. He's scored more than eight points just once in his last five games while shooting 27% over that span.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina SGP
- North Carolina -12
- Under 148.5
- Braeden Shrewsbury Under 9.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Under thunder
North Carolina center Henri Veesar has scored fewer than 16.5 points in four of his last six games, and Notre Dame's strong defensive rebounding will limit his ability to get putbacks.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina SGP
- North Carolina -12
- Under 148.5
- Braeden Shrewsbury Under 9.5 points
- Henri Veesar Under 16.5 points
Notre Dame vs North Carolina odds
- Spread: Notre Dame +12 | North Carolina -12
- Moneyline: Notre Dame +575 | North Carolina -850
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Notre Dame vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Tar Heels are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Notre Dame vs North Carolina
| Location | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, January 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Notre Dame vs North Carolina key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
