North Carolina vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: Targeting an Undervalued Tar Heel

This year’s Jimmy V Classic is headlined by a Top-10 showdown, as the North Carolina Tar Heels and UConn Huskies clash at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. Our college basketball odds have the Huskies favored to win what should be an entertaining contest. 

The Tar Heels are in the midst of a stretch where they’ll play five ranked opponents in six games. Their lone defeat came by two points to Villanova, but they followed it with wins over Arkansas at Tennessee. UNC will hope to continue its dominance in the series, having won five of the six meetings.

UConn comes into the game fresh off a 4-point loss as Kansas handed the Huskies their first defeat of the season. It was a battle from start to finish but the defending champs weren’t able to overcome poor free throw shooting. Now, they face their third Top-15 opponent in five games, and they’ll welcome the return of Stephon Castle from injury. 

Our free college basketball picks for North Carolina vs. UConn break down the matchup and provide you with a player prop with excellent value. 

North Carolina vs UConn best odds

North Carolina vs UConn picks and predictions

While RJ Davis and Armando Bacot get most of the headlines for the North Carolina Tar Heels, Harrison Ingram is just as much a key player. He’s third on the team in scoring and second in rebounding.

And of the five Tar Heels with 10+ attempts from downtown this season, he’s the only one connecting at better than a 35% clip. He’s making more than 43% of his long-range efforts, and averaging two made per contest.

In his last four games, since they began this tough stretch of opponents, Ingram has made eight of his 19 threes. He’s made exactly four 3-point shots in three of his last five outings and has attempted at least four in five of his last six. 

The UConn Huskies are 43rd in effective FG% defense, and it’s among the 10 best programs in the country at limiting teams to just one possession. And on shots inside the arc, only nine schools allow a lower percentage of made baskets.

However, the Huskies rank 313th in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to connect on more than 37% of their attempts. That’s despite opponents averaging just 17.1 shots per game from behind the arc, the 27th-fewest in college basketball.

Kansas attempted just 14 but made nine of those. Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson, the Jayhawks’ leaders in attempts this season, took eight of those and made six. Texas lost by 10 to the Huskies, but it had two players hit multiple 3-point shots. 

That’s why I’m backing Ingram to hit multiple shots from downtown on Tuesday night. DraftKings is offering the best odds on the market, with two or more made 3-pointers paying out at +115. That’s a significant difference in price vs. FanDuel, which is offering that at -125. 

I’m not going to turn down plus money for North Carolina’s top outside shooter to make a pair. Especially when he’s facing a defense that's giving up some of the open looks UConn has this season. With their focus on slowing down Davis and Bacot, the Huskies should give him enough opportunities to bury a pair and cash this prop. 

My best bet: Harrison Ingram Over 1.5 made threes (+115 at DraftKings)

North Carolina vs UConn same-game parlay

Harrison Ingram to hit 3+ threes

Armando Bacot Under 9.5 rebounds

+700 at DraftKings

For our same-game parlay, we have to get a bit creative as DraftKings isn’t offering our best bet as a parlay-eligible option. 

Therefore, we’re going to get a bit bold and back Ingram to make three shots from beyond the arc. I expect him to be a key part of their offense with how difficult it’s going to be to score inside against UConn. Given his propensity to let fly, there’s a good chance he connects on more than two here.  

Over 25% of Bacot’s rebounds this season have come at the offensive end. Arkansas limited Bacot to just seven rebounds in their meeting. That was in large part due to the Hogs having two bigs who could keep him at bay, much like UConn will have. Take the Under on his rebounds.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

North Carolina vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis

The Huskies rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive effective FG%, and it’s a key reason they’re favored to win with a spread of -5.5. The line opened at -3.5 on Monday, and within an hour, the public pounced and added two more points.

The Tar Heels have gone 4-4 ATS this season but will be underdogs for the first time this year. UConn failed to cover the spread in three straight games and missed the cover by a half-point as underdogs to Kansas. The Huskies are also 4-4 ATS this year. 

Laying 5.5 points is a bit too much for my taste, but the return of Castle is a huge unknown. If he’s able to go 15-20 minutes, it significantly increases UConn’s ability to cover. I think UNC will struggle to find baskets at times given UConn’s defense. The Huskies also won’t have to worry about Bacot stepping out to hit threes the way Dickinson did.

As for the total, it’s been bet down multiple points since opening. The line came out around 154 and was quickly lowered, with Tuesday morning seeing an additional shift to 150.5 at DraftKings.

Both of these teams are highly effective on the offensive end, in large part because they don’t turn the ball over. That’s going to help feed the Under, as I expect many possessions to end after just one shot, and transition opportunities will be limited. UNC managed just six points against Villanova on the break, and I anticipate a similar situation here.

UNC's 8-point win over Florida State this weekend ended a run of four straight Overs for the Tar Heels, with the Over going 5-3 for them this season. For UConn, it’s been an even split at 4-4 on the season. Each of its last two has gone Under. 

North Carolina vs UConn betting trend to know

UConn has cashed the first-half moneyline in 22 of its last 29 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. UConn.

North Carolina vs UConn game info

North Carolina vs UConn key injuries

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