The No. 2 seed Nevada Wolf Pack host the Murray State Racers in an NIT opening round game on Wednesday.
Nevada is strong where Murray State is weakest. The Wolf Pack are also more battle tested. That’s why my Murray State vs. Nevada predictions call for Nevada to cover at home.
Here are my college basketball picks for this NIT matchup on March 18.
Murray State vs Nevada prediction
Who will win Murray State vs Nevada?
Nevada: Murray State has played just three Quad I foes this year — which Nevada will be. They’ve lost them all by an average 11-point margin.
The Racers are a Quad III opponent for Nevada, and the Wolf Pack are a perfect 11-0 in similar games and have an average 10.9 point margin of victory in Quad III and IV games.
Murray State vs Nevada best bet: Nevada -8.5 (-110)
Nevada should win this game from the outside. The Wolf Pack shoot 36.2% from three, which ranks No. 46 in the nation. They’ll be shooting against a Murray State perimeter defense that ranks No. 317.
The Racers actually allow a higher 3-point percentage than Nevada shoots—36.3%. In other words, Murray State turns every opponent into a top-50 shooting team.
Murray State has covered just two of nine games as an underdog and never covered as a road dog (0-4). The Racers have been a large underdog once, and failed to cover against SMU, who shot 7-of-16 from three.
COVERS INTEL: Quad I opponents hit 26 of 55 three-point attempts against Murray State this season, for a .473 shooting percentage. That’s close to what they shot from two (77 of 149, .517).
Murray State vs Nevada same-game parlay
Nevada -8.5
Over 160.5
Corey Camper Jr. Over 1.5 made threes
While Nevada is bombing away from three, Murray State will be running into the teeth of the blowout. The Racers play at the No. 12 tempo in the country.
This will be the highest total cutoff Nevada has faced this season, but the Wolf Pack has gone Over 20 times in 34 games, including 7 of 11 as favorites. Murray State has been Over 3 of 4 as a road dog.
Corey Camper Jr. is Nevada’s leading scorer and top three-point shooter, both in made threes and accuracy. It appears that he still has both arms and is available to play, so his even odds of hitting at least two treys make no sense. But we’ll take it.
Murray State vs Nevada SGP
- Nevada -8.5
- Over 160.5
- Corey Camper Jr. Over 1.5 made threes
Our beyond the arc SGP: Bombs away
Nevada -8.5
Corey Camper Jr. Over 1.5 made threes
Elijah Price Over 1.5 assists
Vaughn Weems Over 0.5 made threes
Some additional inexplicable odds for individual props. Elijah Price averages more than an assist a game and has seven, combined, in his last three. It’s not a sure thing as Camper’s threes, but the odds are way out of whack.
Vaughn Weems makes 0.8 threes per game but he’s hit at least one in his last four home games and is 5 of his last 8 from deep at home.
Murray State vs Nevada SGP
- Nevada -8.5
- Corey Camper Jr. Over 1.5 made threes
- Elijah Price Over 1.5 assists
- Vaughn Weems Over 0.5 made threes
Murray State vs Nevada odds
- Spread: Murray State +7.5 (-110) | Nevada -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Murray State +290 | Nevada -370
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
Murray State vs Nevada betting trend to know
Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Murray State vs. Nevada.
How to watch Murray State vs Nevada
| Location | Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV |
| Date | Wednesday, March 18, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Murray State vs Nevada key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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