The biggest college basketball game of the regular season hits the nation’s capital tonight as the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils.
These teams have been elite on both ends of the floor but my Michigan vs. Duke predictions give a slight edge to the Wolverines.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on Saturday, February 21.
Michigan vs Duke prediction
Michigan vs Duke best bet: Michigan -2.5 (-110)
Michigan has dominated quality opponents, racking up double-digit wins away from home against Top-15 teams like Purdue, Gonzaga, and Michigan State.
In Quad 1 games, the Wolverines have outperformed Duke in key areas, shooting 36.2% from three compared to the Blue Devils’ 31.2% and boasting an opponent 2PT% of 41.9% versus Duke’s 46.5%.
Duke relies heavily on do-it-all freshman Cameron Boozer to carry their offense and Michigan has the frontcourt to contain him. On the other end, the Wolverines have multiple scoring options, giving Dusty May the flexibility to ride the hot hand.
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Michigan vs Duke same-game parlay
Since we’re backing Michigan on the full-game spread, let’s also take the Wolverines on the first-half spread.
These are the two top-rated defenses in the country with both excelling at controlling tempo and defending at an elite level inside and out. Duke has gone 18-8 to the Under this season, while Michigan is 9-15 O/U over its last 24 games.
Michigan vs Duke SGP
- Michigan -2.5
- Michigan -1.5 1H
- Under 151
Michigan vs Duke odds
- Spread: Michigan -2.5 (-110) | Duke +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan -155 | Duke +130
- Over/Under: Over 151 (-110) | Under 151 (-110)
Michigan vs Duke betting trend to know
The Wolverines are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against ranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Duke.
How to watch Michigan vs Duke
| Location | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Saturday, February 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Michigan vs Duke key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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