The No. 2-ranked Purdue Boilermakers hold a slim, one-game lead over the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten standings and host a Michigan State Spartans program they’ve defeated seven consecutive times at Mackey Arena.
The Spartans head to West Lafayette hoping to end an inexplainable two-game home losing streak and need victories as they head into the final week of the Big Ten regular season.
Who will win Saturday’s Big Ten matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Michigan State and Purdue on Saturday, March 2.
Michigan State vs Purdue best odds
Michigan State vs Purdue picks and predictions
The Purdue Boilermakers are as many as double-digit favorites when they host a Michigan State Spartans side they've defeated seven consecutive times at Mackey Arena.
A Boilermakers loss and an Illinois victory Saturday at Wisconsin would make things interesting when Purdue heads to Champaign to play the Fighting Illini on Tuesday night. Purdue is 14-0 straight up at home but is 7-6-1 ATS at Mackey Arena. They'll have a fight on their hands Saturday night with the Spartans.
The Spartans seemed to have found their stride, winning five of their last six before suffering consecutive home upset losses to Iowa and Ohio State last week. Turnovers down the stretch hurt MSU against Iowa, and the Spartans shot miserably from everywhere and got beat on the glass in their loss to the Buckeyes.
MSU head coach Tom Izzo was unhappy with the Spartans' shooting in both tilts but thought their defense was good enough to win both home games last week.
The Michigan State shooters may catch a break Saturday night. The Boilermakers' defense is good, but it isn't great — it's allowed more than 67.1 points in three of their last five at home and is just average at closing out shooters beyond the arc.
Purdue will give up some size on the perimeter that the Spartans can get some open looks against with their exceptional ball movement — that should help the struggling MSU shooters get some shots to fall and keep them close enough to cover.
MSU was a few bricks short of riding an eight-game winning streak, but it's played well outside the lousy shooting. The 80 points the Spartans allowed to Illinois was the most they yielded since January 26, and since then, they've surrendered fewer than 70 points in five of their last eight.
The pressure is clearly on the Boilermakers — they're undefeated at home, need a win to stay ahead of Illinois, but barely cover at Mackey Arena. If the Spartans can break out of their scoring slump, and I believe they will, they can score enough to keep this within the number.
My best bet: Michigan State +10.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Michigan State vs Purdue same-game parlay
Michigan State +10.5
Over 145
I like this card as it correlates well with the Spartans scoring enough to cover the spread. Edey is a load to handle, but the Boilermakers sometimes get careless with the rock, and the Spartans score nearly 15 points per game from turnovers.
That will help pick up the tempo, and with both teams boasting so many highly skilled offensive players with almost a week to prepare for this game, I expect this one to end in the 150s.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
Purdue opened as a 9.5-point favorite, but money came in on the Boilermakers with the line now at -10.5 across the board. That's a lot of points to lay, considering the Boilermakers are a 7-6-1 cover team at Mackey.
The public is ignoring the Spartans' stellar play over their last eight games and focusing on a pair of ugly home losses by a combined 13 points. That’s why I jumped on the +10.5 at DraftKings. The Spartans are better than their past two results and have covered the number in three of their last five away contests.
We saw the total open at 144.5, and while it raised a half-point at some shops, 145 is the best number for Over bettors. The public typically likes a high-scoring tilt, and if Under bettors wait long enough, we could see 146 or more by tip-off.
Purdue home games are 10-4 to the Over, while MSU away games have ended 4-4. Look for Izzo to come up with some unique plays to get his shooters some better looks, and with both teams being above-average free-throw shooters, we'll see both teams score a big number.
Michigan State vs Purdue betting trend to know
Michigan State has covered the spread in 17 of its last 33 games (+0.50 units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue.
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Michigan State vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, March 2, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Michigan State vs Purdue key injuries
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