The Stanford Cardinal host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA basketball action tonight.
Early money has poured in on the Under, with the total plummeting from 147.5 to 142, and my Notre Dame vs. Stanford predictions expect the Cardinal to be a key component to that coming to fruition.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this ACC showdown on Tuesday, December 30.
Notre Dame vs Stanford prediction
Notre Dame vs Stanford best bet: Stanford team total Under 74.5 (-120)
The Stanford Cardinal are 11-2 but have played a soft schedule, with Saint Louis being their highest-rated opponent. They've faced five teams that are in the Top 150 at KenPom and scored more than 74.5 points in just two of those contests.
They scored 77 points against Colorado, which is 146th in the country in adjusted defense, and managed 78 points (on just 38% shooting) against the extremely fast-paced Billikens.
They'll have a much tougher time eclipsing their team total against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who rank 65th in the country in adjusted defense and 290th in adjusted tempo.
The Irish lost leading scorer Markus Burton (18.5 points and 3.7 assists per game) to a long-term ankle injury three weeks ago. However, that will only make them rely even more on their size and defensive identity to keep this game competitive.
Freshman Ebuka Okorie (22.8 PPG) has carried Stanford's offense, but the Cardinal lack scoring depth and are outside the Top 200 in 2-point percentage (51%).
Meanwhile, the Irish are 82nd in opponent 2PT% (48.4%) and don't allow many second chances, ranking third in defensive rebounding rate. They used that hard-nosed defense to contain Ohio State, Houston, and Kansas, and should be able to do the same against Stanford.
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Notre Dame vs Stanford same-game parlay
Even if the Cardinal go Under their team total, there's still a good chance they beat Notre Dame, which is fresh off a home loss to lowly Purdue Fort Wayne.
The Irish will have difficulty putting up points without Burton, and their backcourt will struggle against Stanford's ball pressure (21st in opponent TO rate). In addition, travelling to the West Coast for a late road game is always tough for Midwest schools.
Notre Dame vs Stanford SGP
- Stanford team total Under 74.5
- Stanford moneyline
Our beyond the arc SGP: Hangin' Tough
While the Cardinal should win, I don't see them winning by more than two possessions — especially if they go below their team total. That gives us a nice +725 payout in a low-scoring game where Notre Dame keeps it competitive but ultimately comes up short.
Notre Dame vs Stanford SGP
- Stanford team total Under 74.5
- Stanford moneyline
- Notre Dame +6.5
Notre Dame vs Stanford odds
- Spread: Notre Dame +245 | Stanford -305
- Moneyline: Notre Dame +6.5 | Stanford -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 142 | Under 142
Notre Dame vs Stanford betting trend to know
Stanford has hit the first half Under in 23 of its last 36 games (+8.15 Units / 20% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Stanford.
How to watch Notre Dame vs Stanford
| Location | Maples Pavilion, Stanford, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Notre Dame vs Stanford key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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