Maryland vs Iowa Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's Big Ten Tournament Game

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 11, 2026 , 08:55 AM ET • 4 min read

Maryland got a head start in its Big Ten tournament opener but the Hawkeyes won't be so accommodating. Jason Logan is laying the lumber with Iowa, which won't be taking the Terps lightly.

NCAAB

Match starts: 1 hrs
MD
59 %
IOWA
41 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Iowa -11.5 (-110) Iowa -11.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz NCAAM.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) with possession.

The Maryland Terrapins won’t have an 11-minute head start when they face the Iowa Hawkeyes in Round 2 of the Big Ten tournament.

The Terrapins upset the Oregon Ducks as underdogs in the opening game, with Oregon failing to score a single field goal until 8:46 in the first half. 

Now, Maryland has a quick turnaround for this early 12 p.m. ET tipoff, facing a Hawkeyes squad on a three-game slide and needing to impress to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Our Maryland vs. Iowa predictions aren’t sold on what we saw from the Terps last night and don't discount the Hawkeyes for their recent losses. My college basketball picks are laying the lumber with Iowa in Chicago.

Maryland vs Iowa prediction

Maryland vs Iowa best bet

Maryland vs Iowa best bet: Iowa -11.5 (-110)

The Iowa Hawkeyes dropped their final three games, but two of those came against the top two teams in the conference, with Iowa fighting tooth and nail. 

The Hawkeyes won’t take the Maryland Terrapins lightly. Not only did they watch Maryland win on Tuesday, but Iowa also lost its most recent matchup, with UMD shooting 53% in that victory.

Maryland shot just 40% Tuesday night and fell to earth in the second half, nearly letting Oregon back into the game. 

The Hawkeyes are a much tougher challenge, running a methodical half-court pace and playing disruptive defense that makes it tough to go on runs.

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Maryland vs Iowa same-game parlay

Some game models have this as a 13-point Iowa win. I believe this spread gives UMD too much credit for Tuesday’s win and discounts the Hawkeyes for a tough finish to the regular season. Iowa’s ability to flip defense into offense will take advantage of a tired Terps team, especially in the second half.

Bennett Stiritz leads the Iowa fast break, and with the Hawkeyes being excellent at scoring off turnovers, he’ll dish out five or more dimes today. He had six assists vs. Maryland back in February.

Elijah Saunders had the hot hand against Oregon, knocking down 5 of 6 from beyond the arc. With UMD playing from behind with its season on the line, he’ll be forced to fire up plenty of 3-pointers.

Maryland vs Iowa SGP

  • Iowa -11.5
  • Bennett Stirtz Over 4.5 assists
  • Elijah Saunders Over 1.5 made threes

Our beyond the arc SGP: Hawk and Chalk

Stirtz hung 25 and 32 points on Maryland in their two meetings, and Terps coach Buzz Williams instantly mentioned him when interviewed after Tuesday’s win. 

Maryland vs Iowa SGP

  • Iowa -11.5
  • Over 136
  • Bennett Stirtz Over 23.5 Points
  • Bennett Stirtz Over 4.5 Assists

Maryland vs Iowa odds

  • Spread: Maryland +11.5 | Iowa -11.5
  • Moneyline: Maryland +500 | Iowa -700
  • Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136

Maryland vs Iowa betting trend to know

Maryland is 4-7 SU and ATS coming off a win this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Iowa.

How to watch Maryland vs Iowa

Location United Center, Chicago, IL
Date Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Tip-off 12:30 p.m. ET
TV Peacock

Maryland vs Iowa key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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